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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (858)	12/3/1998 1:58:00 PM
From: Rob Shilling	Respond to of 1301

The big part of the capital flight ended after the U.S. started cutting interest rates. Now the EU has done an 11 country coordinated interest rate cut. Everybody is finally realizing that if the conditions for putting money into markets other than the U.S. and Europe are not better, the whole world will fall into recession. The greed of the U.S. is showing. Artificially high interest rates bascially sucked the money out of emerging markets that were being pummeled with hedge fund warfare and IMF contractionary polices. The pendulum has swung back to emerging markets. We will really start to see it after the negative spin on oil prices can no longer be supported by the facts. $8 a barrel oil is a rediculous forecast when nobody is making money at those prices except for OPEC maybe. The numbers show a 2.5 mpbd drawdown in crude oil storage that has occurred since September. Back then supposably the the EIA said that the world had an extra 170 million barrels of oil in storage above 1997. Even if that was true (can we trust the EIA ?? They "lost" 300 million barrels of oil and can't find it), that surplus storage is all gone now thanks to the 2.5 mbpd or 75 million barrel per month drawdown. Still don't believe me? How about marginal producers ?? How much marginal production has been shut in ??? It has not been reported ... hmmm ... maybe because Exxon needs to merge with Mobil before oil prices can return back to normal levels (low pump prices will keep public outrage low). America's greed is showing. Amercia thought it could have high growth, zero inflation, low oil prices, a booming stock market, investment vehicles (like hedge funds) that could rule the financial world, and all multinational U.S. companies could buy into underdeveloped countries (that unwisely don't follow "reforms") at bargain prices). What America may end up seeing is a crashed stock market, a oil shortage, an EU that can compete with it toe to toe, and a very large increase in anti-American rhetoric by other countries in the world.