To: Knighty Tin who wrote (38061 ) 12/3/1998 11:30:00 AM From: Tommaso Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
Switching from frogs to chickens, if I may, I was thinking about one of the hazards of being a chiecken farmer that may be applicable to the stock market. Sometimes in these huge quonset huts that they raise thousands of chickens in at once (for fryers, not layers), a power outage or a nearby lightning stroke or maybe just some other random even frightens some of the chickens and sets off a chicken stampede. They all run to one end of the hut and pile on top of one another, and hundreds get killed. I keep waiting for all these chickens in the market to do this. But now it occurs to me that we might get something more like a stampede of slugs. Jeez the last time I had any real fun was that day in October, 1987, when I was driving my ten-year-old daughter to the state fair and I didn't even have access to a stock ticker, but every hour or so on the news the market was down hundreds of points. But to switch to a geological metaphor, I think what we might get is groundcreep rather than a landslide, particularly if central banks keep cutting their rates by 10% of the current rate. You know and I know that in the Depression there were something like a dozen rate cuts in a row that didn't stop the slide of stocks. But to many holders of stocks rate cuts give the impression that there is some kind of government insurance being extended to stocks. As to oil, the income to Saudi Arabia must be dropping so low that hundreds of thousands of Koreans and others who work there may have to go home, and the Saudi royal family may be in danger of a coup that would bring in someone like the Ayatolah Khomeini. What do you think of that possibility and its conseqeunces?