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Politics : Bill Clinton Scandal - SANITY CHECK -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (16954)	12/3/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 67261

I think it's coming by 2000 or 2001. The manufacturing jobs have been shrinking. Real estate will probably turn down by then also. My commercial property broker concurs also --- things have pretty much levelled off at or below the peak activity, and will gradually slow down. She said it takes about a year to recognize a recession and one year for companies to respond. (That people are now into deficit spending (negative savings rate) indicates living on borrowed time. Perhaps, it's all those Christians borrowing to the hilt on credit cards and expecting to be raptured out of paying.) The government labor statistics are skewed so that unemployment statistics lag the economy by up to 12 months. Since they use recent hiring trends, they overstate employment at end of expansion and overstate unemployment at end of recessions.