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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: uu who wrote (199)	12/3/1998 5:32:00 PM
From: Trey McAtee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

addi-- pass me some of what you are taking. my lithium scrip isnt cutting it anymore... at least it hasnt given me the ability to see this new inductrial revolution you apparently see. and for the love of god...stop reading wired and anything that even has the slightest mention of the tofflers. there isnt a new paradigm. its the SOS, just in a new format. you know what i want to invest in? a nationwide chain of auto repair centers, plumbers and other manual labor jobs. THATS where the money is going to be...EVERYONE is trying to get into technology. as for the tremendous need for chips...internet computing only works with powerful and very cheap silicon (lets not forget cheap bandwidth as well). you think AMAT and MU are going to make that happen? they dont want it to happen. the next upturn cycle isnt going to be like the previous ones. it going to be broad based...that means all over the planet. and everyone is going to want a piece. sure that might help AMAT...but not for a while. MU and AMAT in the 40s, given the current cap spending and financial (consumer and business) environment is just crazy. you wanna know whats fueling the sub 1k pc market? its cheap silicon. when that dries up, so does your market. thats not to say this is a permanent situation. but given the information we have now, wouldnt you say that going long AMAT when things are clearly going to get worse is a bit pollyanna-ish at best? good luck to all, trey

To: uu who wrote (199)	12/3/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

ADDI, The huge runup in the internuts will not last. The strong internets will still be around but they will not be trading anywhere near these levels/PE ratios. The internet mania, I feel, is a type of mania that does not come every year. These manic periods, historically, last about 1 year - IE: TULIPS & THE TRADING COMPANIES of several hundred years ago. Granted those examples are ancient and many may feel that such will not apply during this new era. OK, then lets use the example of IOM and NSCP, which after they had their manic period and peaked, it took about 1 year for them to lose more than half of their highest value. IOM got to about 28 and got as low as 3 - which is about a 89% decline. That high level of pricing on the internuts will start to decline soon if it has not already started. Even the good ones will start seeing much lower P/E's. I just look at it as a manic cycle/bubble. The internets will last(good ones), but the bubble promoting these rediculous P/E's will not. Welcome to the thread seeya