Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (83602)	12/3/1998 10:03:00 PM
From: D. Swiss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Mohan, thanks for the post. The swines at Dogway lied to me the other day. One of these days I will listen to Kemble and dump it to buy more Dell. :o) Drew

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (83602)	12/3/1998 10:16:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Mohan: I find it ironic that Lew Platt would call the PC a "pretty crude device"...and imply its demise... HP has not figured out a way to make a profit off of this "pretty crude device"...and they want to try to make a profit off more sophisticated replacements? Obviously, HP has a rich history of developing some terrific products, and at one time, had its act together financially...but Lew Platt looks more and more unimpressive every time he speaks....Did you catch a few months ago when he joked about quitting (?) IMO, He is simply off... BTW- Last summer, I got on HP's case quite a bit, and predicted they would exit PC's within the next 3 years...looks like things are on track... Now, let me be a bit controversial (to some)... (Some) kudos need to go to (some people's) whipping boy: A. Kumar.....a few days ago, he came out and predicted that Gateway sales were off (and that they are going to miss their number- this remains to be scene)...at the time, a Gateway spokesman said sales were "fine...we don't know what he's talking about"... Well, today, low and behold, Ted Waitt comes out and admits sales were slow in October and November... As you recently admitted, he also correctly predicted Dell's last EPS of .28... (BTW- He is predicting that CPQ also will not make his number...this is direct conflict with Dan Niles of Robby Stephens who sees their number coming in much higher...usually Niles and Kumer are on a (similiar) page...Pretty bold stuff by Kumar)... So, back to Dell.....Without getting into Chuzz's argument about Kumar screwing up the shipment count....let me throw this one out....Kumar may or may not be right about Dell having a harder time going forward "picking the low fruit" of the PC wars.... But I think his broader point about slowing Dell growth COULD still also be in harmony with Dell being a favorable LONG for all of us....How so? Let's say y-o-y EPS growth (each quarter) slows from the current 65-70% down to the high 50's-low 60's over the course of the next year (due to a bit slower increases in unit sales)...Just suppose....Would Wall Street (necessarily) torpedo the stock because of it...I think not.... I mean, look at the current result from the earning (perceived? disappointment) in Q3...the reaction has not been near as severe as (with some other Dell quarters) to date, quarters in which growth was as strong or stronger... As each quarter goes on...Dell solidifies its reputation as an incredible growth machine, and even with a slight slowdown.....Dell maybe gains in "long-term growth premium" that companies like Cisco enjoy...so maybe these two net out.....or, at least, the latter slows down the former....to keep Dell's stock appreciating at a fine rate... Also, Dell is gaining an "internet" premium, I believe, a conviction that they have developed the perfect internet business model (for selling PC's)...I mean, who would have believed how quickly the ENTIRE WORLD has caught on to buying, selling, working over the internet.... Kumar still has a buy on it (OK, so its not a strong buy...) So, I am splitting the difference here, and allowing for both camps to wind up happy....I like this scenario better than saying that Kumar is way off....Let's face it, he has been as good as any ax on the PC market over the last few years.... I would be happy if Dell (became a Cisco-like investment) over the next couple years...ie, slower stock appreciation, but a healthy premium for its dominant position...This seems (to me) more realistic than 70% EPS growth each quarter...but hey, I'll take that too...