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Gold/Mining/Energy : Oil & Gas Price Economics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (13)	12/4/1998 9:36:00 AM
From: Rod Copeland	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 350

I agree with both Razor and Ed. The commodity has reached a point where its price is going to fluctuate wildly at times. The reason? Supply and demand are much closer today than in years past. Consumption has increased to such high levels that very small percentages of over or undersupply will drive the price dramatically. So Razor sees a very good market condition existing over the long term by buying in on significant dips. Ed is seeing that the volatility snuffs out the sector at times, and causes the sector to be unpredictable due to outside geo-political influences. I think Razor is correct in that there is usually plenty of time to move in and out of the sector. Picking the bottom is sometimes difficult, but even with the Asian Flu, I would expect that oil is being sold at a price that is considerably less than what it will average over the next twelve months. Ed is correct in that his methodology for investing does not allow him any comfort in this sector. Razor has no problem with it, because he is more in tune with the sector and the commodity. It all boils down to your personal investment methodology. I would be interested to know when Razor starts back in the sector. I have lost my cahunas in this sector, in more ways than just in the market. I am not giving up just because I missed the bottom, and underestimated the duration of this "dip". My question now remains...."What is a barrel of oil going to be worth this coming year?" No one knows. We are at sixty year lows in real dollars. For survival purposes, I pray its more than it is now. Rod