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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (34952)	12/4/1998 9:39:00 AM
From: Margaret Mateer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I bet his publisher loves him <g>

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (34952)	12/4/1998 9:50:00 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I would take that as a confirmation that there will be one. Reminds me of his underling clown on CNBC the day before we dropped 500 points on the DOW saying that he saw a "melt-up in the US."

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (34952)	12/4/1998 7:27:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Well, thus far I seem inclined to stand by Soro's original analysis. I also like his concept of "reflextivity", both as a philisophical and economic hypothesis. A few of the reasons I think the worst is yet to come basically stems from the psychological reactions to the Y2K event. I get the sense that not only will banks become more cautious about who they loan money to, but also business may become more reluctant to launch into new product or service forays as we move into 1999. Unwillingness to extend loans or take on additional debt, as well as the undeveloped world's growing battle to service their horrendous debt load hint at the upcoming credit crunch before 2000. By the middle of the year, I suspect the entire global economy will be battening down the hatches on AT LEAST THE PERCEPTION that Y2K creates an uncertainty in the economy and financial system. Thus far the street has been pretty adept at poo-pooing the entire issue and discounting the potential repercussions. However, in reading the latest quarterly report statements of major corporations, none I've read have yet to guarantee there will be no major disruption of their operations. And there has been no attempt to quantify the risks. Look at Chevron's most recent 10Q on page 14 and you will see that they readily admit they will not be fully remediated by 2000, yet they didn't bother to state whether the disruptions would be material or not, and what that would mean for their operations in a given time frame. So what will be the ramifications on the global economy should Chevron and other petroleum producers/refiners find themselves severely restricted on their refining capacity? Given that it will hit ALL corporations at the same time, and the fact that much of the economy is symbiotic in nature, potential cascade effects may be greivous. (but then again they may not. The problem is we won't know until it happens and that equates to an uncertainty of the worst kind) Hmmmm.... I think we'll be seeing more of these funky ambiguous Y2K statements as 1999 brings the millenium into sharper focus. I also think Y2K stocks will have one last major run in 1999 as well. These are a few of the things that keep me up late at night. Also, I welcome any comments on where my analysis is complete screwed up. I believe in being self-correcting in my thinking. Regards, Ron