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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (32462)	12/4/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: Captain James T. Kirk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Hey Doug, might I suggest UTI, MRL and ESV (for those less than $10. plays).

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (32462)	12/4/1998 4:04:00 PM
From: STEVE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

TMAR down 84% from its 52 week high. Anyone have an opinion how it stacks up against the others in the sector as far as its upside potential vs downside risk??

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (32462)	12/4/1998 6:20:00 PM
From: Mike from La.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

You're beginning to scare me, Doug. It hasn't been your style to be so optimistic. The reason I asked about production was a report by MacKay consultants of Scotland. They project offshore oil production will rise by 17% by 2000 (twice the industry as a whole), and offshore outlays to increase by about 2.3%/year, down from 4.5%. Then they say that exploration expenditures will fall by 14% by 2000. Offshore gas production expenditures is projected to rise much faster. Their estimates have expenditures breaking down like this: production 55%, development 38%, and exploration 7%. So I'm trying to figure out what it means. It looks like a lot more money will be spent to increase production by other than E&P, but I'm not sure. Article was on page 25 of Oil and Gas Journal, Nov. 30. The New Orleans paper further confuses the picture by saying that one of the reasons we are having the big oil mergers is so they can pool their resources for deepwater drilling and development, which, in spite of it's high potential return, requires a great deal of upfront money. This would imply that the oil services sector as a whole will take a long time to recover, put deepwater should go right on. One last bit of confusion, same O & G Journal: GOM oil is being depleted at a 33% annual rate, and expected to rise, and gas is depleting at a rate of 38% today, rising to 49% by 2002. Simmons says that 1000 wells must be drilled in 1999 just to stay even, and so expects day rates and utilization rates to improve until the rig count reaches 126 and utilization 95& by 2002. Overall rates, not just deepwater. All these estimates were a bit overwhelming, got any thoughts? My sense is that there are an awful lot of investors just waiting to jump in as soon as they can confirm a positive trend to oil prices. Everyone wants to take the next great ride, but are still too afraid that this is the end of oil forever. I think all it will take is a strong OPEC move, and I think that may happen if Chavez is elected in Venezuela. It could very will be his first spectacular move. Makes sense, if he fixed Venezuela's market share war with the Saudi's (one of the greatest bone head moves of the decade), and oil prices immediately moved big time, he would not only be a hero in his country, but he would be the man who pulled OPEC back together. Heady stuff. Mike from La.