To: llamaphlegm who wrote (28944 ) 12/4/1998 8:14:00 PM From: llamaphlegm Respond to of 164684
excerpts ... the bulls can pull their own puff pieces quotes if they want ... But as Amazon plunges into each new category, it no longer has that crucial first-mover advantage. Instead, it faces entrenched and often much bigger rivals in virtually every corner it may choose to enter. That's what led Forrester CEO George F. Colony to declare last year that the pioneer online merchant soon would be ''Amazon.toast.'' Amazon can't even dismiss the booksellers, who, Despite their lumbering start, are making a mad dash for the Net now. Last month, Bertelsmann, the German media giant and owner of several publishers, including top Random House Inc., paid $200 million for a 50% stake in the online arm of Barnes & Noble, giving it a considerable war chest for its battle with Amazon. And on Nov. 6, Barnes & Noble jolted Amazon and the entire publishing world by announcing a $600 million deal to buy the leading book distributor Ingram Book Group--which supplies 60% of Amazon's books. Barnes & Noble promises no favoritism, but prudence will force Amazon to find other sources, likely at higher cost. All that adds up to a fearsome force in Amazon's core market. Says Barnes & Noble Vice-Chairman Stephen Riggio: ''The biggest piece of the market is ahead of us.'' CYBERMALL. The seasoned online crowd is no less determined to fight off Amazon. On Nov. 23, CDnow--which has announced a deal to merge with rival N2K, nearly doubling its sales--joined with movie seller Reel.com, computer merchant Cyberian Outpost, eToys, and others to form a virtual mall called ShopperConnection. Buyers can access each of those online retailers from a single site. Likewise, Web portals such as Yahoo! Inc. and the bulked-up America Online Inc.-Netscape Communications Corp. combo are angling for a bigger slice of the E-commerce pie. So are fast-growing merchants such as Buy.com (page 130). And as Bezos moves into new markets, he will run smack into traditional retailers that are starting to wield their brands online. A new study by Boston Consulting Group found that 59% of consumer E-commerce revenues--including retail sites and online financial and travel services--are generated by companies such as Eddie Bauer and 1-800-FLOWERS that also sell through traditional channels. Says Carol Sanger, a vice-president at Macy's parent Federated Department Stores Inc.: ''We think the brand of Macy's is far more meaningful to the consumer who is looking for traditional department-store goods than any Internet brand name.'' As if all the rivals aren't scary enough, Amazon faces an even more fundamental uncertainty: Retailing is a business with razor-thin margins, prompting some analysts to question whether the company will ever be profitable. The theory: Its ambitious growth plans will keep it on the fast track for entering new markets, propelling costs ever upward--and earnings out of reach. Analysts estimate that Amazon will spend nearly $200 million on marketing next year, up 50% over a year ago. ''The company has been able to show it can sell lots of books for less without making money, and now it has shown it can sell lots of music for less without making money,'' says Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Jonathan Cohen, one of only two analysts with a sell rating on the stock.