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To: Carl Held who wrote (4758)	12/5/1998 12:23:00 PM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Respond to of 11051

John, there's nothing "mystic" in my moves - I hope. I use leaps out of the same reasons as you do. (this was discussed here several times before you've come over here, mustn't be repeated) I sell from time to time my leaps as you do. I cannot sell greater positions of my stocks out of technical reasons. (at least it's difficult, hard to control and expensive) Therefor: I "invest" using leaps in cycles of a few month, trying (seldom achieving) to find good in- or out-moments, I "invest" using stocks "forever", and I "play" sometimes "intraday" with stock on my Datek-account (mostly producing movements of just a few k $) - entertainement while I'm looking what's happening - but so far fair valued. But - under the line - it's the same as if one sells a part of his stocks when the risk of a turn is growing - there's no contradiction. As Carl expanded - and I agree widely - there's a lot of "insanity" going on (not alone in US this time), not only with internet-stocks (nevertheless I hope that the world will not go down during the years I still have). Irrationalismn makes me nervous. I will not end with huge losses like a few banks - and I'm nervous like I never have been before. My exit last Thursday could have been another "Griff in's Klo" (no clue about equivalent expressions in English, some like "grip in the closet") - and I'm worrying that I miss a lot of profit if it's going up (but even today I don't know yet "if" - do you?). But I got my money more than doubled this year - so far I'm content, even if this will be my worst (of course %-) result since I'm "here" in SI. I'm an old man and I pay my fee for security... Another questions? Feel free.. And "happy trading" from a sad trader. Jury this is another silly attitude to talk about "point"-records - anti-information at it's best.

To: Carl Held who wrote (4758)	12/5/1998 1:15:00 PM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Respond to of 11051

Carl, I'd prefer grey to black or white - but I cannot offer "real truth's" You're certainly right, there's a lot of money and (therefor?!) a lot of "insanity". I'd like to add: there's a lot of teevee and a lot of joungsters who play with another peoples money. Just these points: "< $1000-pc's": A few days ago, a German food-chain sold exactly 200.000 PC's in one single day. This found positive (!!!) comments from "real" computer-sellers, when a analysing study brought out that this was not a market-shifting but a market-opening: nearly all buyers were privat newcomers. You're right with the need of "bandwith", but I see also (as from the beginning) a need of growing power and capacity. I agree with BG (just announcing "baby 2.0") that "<$1000" is a growing NEW market-segment, bringing money from NEW computer-users (still for a long while) - f.e. Dell's success was not a cheapseller's success. "lay-offs" Normally lay-offs are followed by stock-rescues - and this is IMO logical. It's one of the best parts of US-culture for me that companies reduce their capacities when sales-numbers has come down. This reduces over-capacities in slower growing markets and gives a chance for the competition to keep existing instead undergoing together in huge price-wars. For me, this is 1. normal, 2. healthy and 3. a positive sign for the future. "banks" Do you know an intelligent banker? Could be - cause you knew the "real truth"... Seriously: All this has happened in (now sick) banks, whether it was risky credit-engagement, real-estate-speculation, russian bonds, currency-speculation, whatsoever, it was nothing what could happen when serious people would do serious business. Today boys and grrrllzzz with baby-faces (and they're looking old for their age) can handle uncontroled (!!!) deadly amounts of money. Every (I repeat: EVERY) crashing bank is for me a gift of fortune for the manhood. The earlier the more customers understand that they cannot trust in banks, the earlier we get better control-instruments inside and outside, the earlier we get markets with less "insanity". Force these whetpant-gamblers back in the sandbox where they belong! The fact, that a young "low-back" looks better than f.e. mine shouldn't lead to the misunderstanding that a young brain would decide with that reponsibility you can trust in. This is a part of (British-)US-culture I don't like: seeing "young" as absolute quality - corresponding with the preference of sportskill over brainpower. The Indians were by far more intelligent in this point. Happy healing! Jury