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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel Joo who wrote (34978)	12/4/1998 10:18:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 94695

Daniel who knows I still wonder about all this "HOPLA" or I underestimate or I am clueless. Haim

To: Daniel Joo who wrote (34978)	12/5/1998 10:00:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Daniel.. I sincerely hope you're right. I can handle an opportunity cost as opposed to devastation of the global economy. However, my main point was that the uncertainty surrounding the wholistic impact will drastically affect risk analysis, lending requirements, and thus, the availability of capital to those who can't prove they can sustain business operations in early 2000. And since your claim is that Y2K problems are overblown, why aren't more companies confident enough to indicate this in their filings, (with obvious caveats)?? The Chevron 10Q from Nov 6, certainly attempted to create the impression that they had things well in hand, but the bottom line still remained, "we can't tell you that there won't be drastic problems in 2000, or how long it may take to fix them". Additionally, given my proximity to those "in the know" here in DC, I can tell you that I don't feel nearly as confident as you do. Certainly not with overseas economies in Asia and Europe. And we can't even believe that should they suffer economically, that it won't impact us all. Btw, all of those mom & pop and sub-$500 million revenue companies.... What exactly do they do?? Do they provide any components or parts that are used farther up the manufacturing "food chain"?? Also, aren't they consumers of products produced by larger companies? Well, if they're not making parts or consuming goods, they will be an impact. And since the majority of US citizens employed in the US work for a small or mid-sized company, I suggest the potential impact may not be minor. That's the problem with analyzing Y2K. Few bother to expand their analysis outside of their own particular organization in order to include those factors which they have little control over, such as infrastructure, and suppliers. Nor have analysts looked closely enough at the impact of Asian or Latin American lack of emphasis on Y2K on our situation here at home. I do not expect Asia to get off Scot-Free due to their delays. They are basically discussing contingency planning now. But what I want to know is just how to maintain multi-billion operations based upon contingency plan?? GM was unable to keep its operations going in the face of a small strike last summer. What happens, when across the economy, plants, utilities, or refineries here and there suffer similiar disruptions, this time due to Y2K computer or embedded systems problems? And how do you prepare a proper contingency plan when you aren't quite sure what external elements of the economy will, and what won't, work?? But basically, as we draw closer to 2000, these factors will become more and more germane to valuing equities, and the willingness of investors to purchase them. Without buyers, stock prices decline and other investors start selling. (look at what a lack of buyers did in August). But I'm not a believer in the "Mad Maxx" scenario. I just believe that there well be a good 3-9 month period as folks get things straightened out, replaced, or debugged. Where we stand after that is anyone's guess. Economic problems do not exist in a political vacuum and Y2K could prove to be the spark for far greater problems to unfold. That is what I fear most. Regards, Ron