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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TD who wrote (2902)	12/4/1998 11:17:00 PM
From: O. H. Rundell	Respond to of 9818

Oops! Time to re-think. I got a 96.5% chance of total failure. O. H.

To: TD who wrote (2902)	12/5/1998 1:40:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Hi TD, I tried to be as optimistic as possible the first time and came up with a 48% overall total failure probability. Then I tried to be "realistic", basing this on the various articles I've come across the past six months from some of the more reliable sources (federal government, Senator Bennet investigations, NRC, city, states, software metrics, etc.) and came out at 66%. In both cases, the power grid looked to be at the most risk (just great), followed by the banks, and telecom. Be sure to read the attached main article that explains the methodology and what each question means exactly. y2knewswire.com IMO, this study certainly could be improved upon. For starters, some sort of cross-variable expressing the length of time some of the failures could be expected to last would be extremely helpful. Obviously, just because the grid goes down for a week doesn't mean it can't slowly but completely come back up. For each question, it would be nice to see some of the questions expressed as a series of time intervals, each with its own confidence level, e.g., total grid failure 1 day = 50%, 1 week = 25%, 1 month = 10%, 3 months = 5%, 6 months = 3%, 1 year = 2%, until further notice = 1%. Alos, an important input to the model that I think is missing is the effect on the banking sector due to possible international and domestic capital flight from Y2k concerns -- sort of a variation on bank runs, but on a global scale. This is this guy's first crack at a prediction model. It's a good one for starters, but I fully expect they will get better and more accurate rather quickly as more people begin to take Y2k seriously and more data comes in.