Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pressboxjr who wrote (312)	12/5/1998 12:37:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

A LOOK TO THE FUTURE: I don't recommend holding much more that Y2Ks through Christmas, as most everything should see serious sell-offs late in the month, due to tax loss sales. In my opinion, a larger percentage of cash will sit on sidelines over the New Year, until we see if forward looking Y2K crashes occur. If waters look calm, money will POUR back in first week of January. Some bargains should be found last week of the year in the very best high-tech companies for the future and strongly positioned companies for recession. Coming year's best positioned companies, in my humble opinion: ATHM, ATHM, ATHM. Whenever this is in the 30's or 40's it is a steal, IMO. T...A.T.and T., that is. Europe has given the nod to TCI merger. Still need U.S. Reason you hear nothing about T anymore, IMO is that the big money does not want to see it bid up, so they can buy more. TCI is biggest owner of ATHM. With T buying TCI, they buy ATHM, too. That puts T smack dab into cable AND the prize possession of cable . . . BROADBAND. LBTYA [Liberty Media] is part of what T is buying. It will be a seperate tracking company called A.T.and T Consumer Services. TCI Music [TUNE and TUNEP] convert to LBTYA shares. When merger is completed, they all become ATT Consumer Services. Will this be the broadband internet side of ATT? Either way you begin to see the value of T in the coming year. AOL won't know what hit it, IMO. If AOL does not IMMEDIATELY find a way into broadband, they will follow Prodigy and Compuserve and Viewtron [my old employer] as forgotten online services. BROADBAND is our future and the buying this coming January will demonstrate that. So the bargains we find this month need to reflect future tech and NOT what has worked in the past. I see Yahoo falling and SEEK [with Disney's help and the new EXPRESS service] rising. WAVO and other satellite based internet services, IMO should see some major activity in 99. Of the E-Commerce businesses, we need to recognize where the real profits are. EBAY is a cash cow. There will be others. Catalog services [SPGLA, SHRP, INI, FHT, MALL] have infrastructure in place to benefit most from enormous increases predicted in e-commerce. NTKI/CDNW merger is being ignored so far. Merged company should soar in 99 as top CD seller. Looking for NTKI under 7 and CDNW under 11. BAMM and EGGS still favorite flyers as they are strong companies before they are internet hopefuls. When TMCS [Ticketmaster] and AMZN [Amazon] get taken down, they will also be good buys as they lead in traffic and have rapidly growing revenues predicted. ONSL [Onsale], too. BFLY [Bluefly] is a sleeper in my opinion. When it gets back to single digits, it will be attractive. And trust me on this...BROADBAND via set-top boxes will change the world. It will bring the internet into the home of your parents and grandparents and every neighbor that has cable. This will set up a J-curve on e-commerce. And this is WHY knowledgeable internet investors are bidding up internet e-commerce companies in a similar curve. Most of the world still does not understand WHY we value certain companies so preciously. And that is where we have the advantage for long term picks. As we see more layoff announcements this week keep in mind the recession economists are still predicting for 99. Recession proof companies that I am looking at are: FDO [Family Dollar], DG [Dollar General], HD [Home Depot], MYL [ Mylan Pharmecueticals - 'generic'], GDYS [Goody's], FTUS [Factory to U stores], WMT [Walmart] and other 'necessity' driven companies. Now I am not saying I can predict the future. But with one eye on history and the other on consumer preferences, anyone can extrapolate where we are headed. No crystal balls needed. Rande Is