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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (11175)	12/5/1998 6:59:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

here is the math. i think. LOL. "Direct Rambus solutions will represent 5% of the total DRAM market by next year, 30% by 2000, and about 60% by 2001, according to Dataquest." 1999 2000 2001 est. world dram production $25 billion $35 billion $50 billion rambus market share 5% 30% 60% royalty(h&q said 1.7%) 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% (rmbs cfo said 2-5%) rambus income from dram $21,250,000 $148,750,000 $510,000,000 rambus cfo said 40% net $8,500,000 $59,500,000 $204,000,000 shares out 25 million earnings from dram sales $.34 $2.38 $8.16 remember rmbs ceo said this will only be one half of total revenues. if he is right multiply above earnings by 2X. using a pe of 50 pretty reasonable for this growth. $8.16 X 2 = $16.32 X 50 = $816 per share end of 2001. this still leaves 40% of the market for other forms of memory. am i dreaming or is this going to happen?

To: unclewest who wrote (11175)	12/5/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: Thomas C. Donald	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

UncleWest: There you go again -- misquoting articles. Here is what the article actually said: "If a highly segmented DRAM market does develop over the next several years, it's likely to occur because DRAM suppliers, system OEMs, and Intel failed to meet the plan to deliver Direct Rambus and the infrastructure to support it. Targeted at the massive PC main-memory market, Direct Rambus solutions will represent 5% of the total DRAM market by next year, 30% by 2000, and about 60% by 2001, according to Dataquest." I read this as saying that these percentages are upper limits on the portion of the DRAM market that Rambus could capture. At first, DRAM already on the market (EDO, SDRAM, etc.) will be the competition. DDR DRAM seems to be the main next-generation competition, but there are others mentioned in the article. How much of the market each technology will capture remains to be seen and will depend on, among other things, availability of product and infrastructure. By the way, if you assume that the 1999 DRAM market is $17 billion, as predicted in the article at the link below, and assume that Rambus captures the whole 5% mentioned above and assume that Rambus earns 1.7% royalties, as you stated was expected, then Rambus' revenues will be $0.63/share for 1999. Message 6605119