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To: articwarrior who wrote (5850)	12/5/1998 5:09:00 PM
From: R. Gates	Respond to of 14427

>>Next 3 - 5 years will show downturn in housing market and a fallout in the price of housing. Too much supply and not enough demand...<< FINALLY, somebody REALLY gets it...this is just ANOTHER reason why we are going to see even more DEFLATION. Commodity prices are already on their way down. LT is right that the lower dollar will cause RELATIVE inflation, but on an absolute scale, we are in a global deflationary environment. Baby boomer's have already passed their peak spending years. Sure the tons of money that they are pouring into their 401k's has created an extra long bubble, but as money flows out of dollars and dollar backed securities, down the market will follow... When oil stays around $8 a barrel for a few months, there's no way South America can't help but implode. IMO, the Euro will make a good investment for 1999. R. Gates

To: articwarrior who wrote (5850)	12/5/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: MoneyPenny	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

I don't think I made my point very well. I believe that Baby boomers will probably be working much longer than they envision (at least many of them). This view is held by several think tanks of all persuasions in Washington (at least this is what I was told by my friend who is deeply involved). 1. The baby bust (1968-81?) will not provide enough workers, technology aside and the demands of health care etc. will keep Boomers working much later than they anticipate. 2. Social Security will not collapse but will instead return to it's original purpose: to provide a safety cushion for the working poor, not the socialized retirement plan it has become during the last 50 years. The age threshold to collect will probably be accelerated more in line with actuarial tables of today, not the 1930's when it was designed. I do not believe it is necessarily right or healthy to anticipate a 25 to 30 year retirement period and with the life expectancy increasing all the time, the age will have to be shifted to a minimum of say 70 at some point and even 75. I have started a new career and I expect to be working until that age although not as intensely as I did at 30. 3.Healthcare will be the biggest headache for the private sector, individuals and governments. It is the third rail in politics and no one wants to touch it but some fundamental changes will have to be made. Medicare cannot continue to pay for healthcare in the manner it has in the past. We are making stunning strides in increasing longevity and improving quality of life at great cost. Who is going to bear this cost when the baby boomers reach the peak age for receiving medical care? The government, their former employers, private insurance? Think how much that will cost! 4. Housing market will simply change again leaving a very large number of "trophy" homes on the market as people scale down and perhaps have less need of the 1500 sq. ft. bathroom: designed more of these than I care to think about. I like to think that as an interior designer, I got out of the business at the top. <g> Just my take on some of the developing trends as I try to plan my investments. Sharon