To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (28988 ) 12/5/1998 11:12:00 AM From: llamaphlegm Respond to of 164684
Glenn: This is frightening. ABANDONING PRICE TARGETS - We have been deriving our price targets from our published earnings estimates over the next 3 to 4 years. Even adjusting for the hopefully conservative element of our projections, the price targets for the perceived winners and others don't appear to make sense relative to current stock prices. While we find price targets useful as a reality check, based on repeated requests for an explanation, we suspect the data may be creating more confusion than value. As such, we are removing the price targets from our weekly table. and this is a little strange -- i'm having trouble understanding why a travel service wants to sell itself it to a retail merchant ot books, vbideos, and cds and limit itself to those who come to amzn's site rather than line up with aol, msn et al??? we can imagine a few powerful combinations. Yahoo! and Amazon.com would appear the ultimate Web destination. Yahoo! and the other networks are already trying to create easy-to-shop malls by offering one-stop registration for credit card and shipping information. The challenge with this model is that it does not assure quality service, which we believe may require taking inventory. The counter to this argument is that landlords have higher margins than e-tailers. However, AOL has a blended margin of access and other revenues and has the highest aggregate market capitalization. Accordingly, Amazon.com and Excite might make a better marriage, because Excite might be more willing to give up its name. Smaller transactions might make more sense, such as Amazon.com buying Preview Travel, which would appear less expensive than trying to enter the travel space itself.