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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (32484)	12/5/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 95453

The Weekday Extra has the article on the potential oil service company mergers. GLM seems to be shopping itself around according to the article. I haven't had an AIQ buy signal on the group yet. The last two troughs were accompanied by a jump in the Money Flow Index just before the pop. A trend change confirmation would be a cross of the 10-day moving averages or a MACD crossover. I've started watching the near-strike option activity in some of the stocks. Rowan (RDC) keeps getting purchases of the January 10's (RDC AB) as now and each time rallies. SLB, DO, RIG, and GLM activity haven't shown much of a pattern.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (32484)	12/5/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 95453

chinadaily.com.cn Oil prices predicted to decline Date: 11/29/1998 Page: 8 Author: Zhao Shaoqin China still has a long way to go to shape a rational and effective mechanism to impose order on its chaotic refined oil market. Rumours have been rife that prices of refined oil will jump due to the Chinese Government's desire to unify all fees on vehicle owners into one single fuel tax next year. It has been reported that some wholesalers and gas stations have been busy hoarding petrol for speculative purposes. However, the State Council's proposal for the new tax was not passed by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress at a recent meeting, so it is unlikely to be adopted at the beginning of 1999. An official with the China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) said he thought the price of refined oil on the domestic market may even fall in the first quarter of next year. His prediction is backed up by global oil trends. World oil prices sank to a new 12-year low on Wednesday, with Brent crude oil futures falling as far as US$10.65 a barrel. Sources said the Chinese Government is considering closing some high-cost oil wells and turning to overseas suppliers for cheap crude oil. !!China halted imports of refined oil and slashed imports of crude oil this summer because of the huge glut in the domestic market due to rampant smuggling. !! The price of domestic crude oil stands at around US$15 per barrel, while the ex-factory price of diesel is 2,100 yuan (US$253) per ton and the ex-factory gasoline price is 1,920 yuan (US$231) per ton. All these prices are much higher than abroad. Industry insiders also say the Chinese Government is ready to take significant measures to shut down redundant gas stations and small refineries, which are believed not only to suffer from low efficiency and poor economic returns, but also to leave room for smuggling. It is time to gather all gas stations under the banners of the two State oil conglomerates, CNPC and the China Petrochemical Corp (Sinopec), experts say. Although it is essential to clear up the chaos in the refined oil market, the rectification is too tough to be completed in the near future, said by Liu Wenlong, Sinopec's chief economist. The most significant duty for domestic producers is to examine concrete market indicators to better reach a balance of supply and demand, Liu said. The flood of smuggled oil this spring brought about not only a slump of refined oil prices in April and May, but has also left a persistently sluggish market. Besides its stringent anti-smuggling campaign, the government also asked Sinopec and CNPC to process less crude oil and make less oil products to balance the market. But Liu expressed anxiety over a probable supply gap in the foreseeable future because true demand has been concealed by the large amount of smuggled products. Refineries should adjust their production structure urgently to make more diesel and less gasoline to better cater to the domestic market, he said.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (32484)	12/5/1998 1:10:00 PM
From: John Carpenter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Mr. Abelson fails to give any fundamental reason why we should buy these stocks other than they're cheap. He doesn't explain what factors will improve the current situation, nor does he provide real specifics on why the current situation won't get worse before it gets better. Throughout the 90's Mr. Abelson warned us about an "overvalued" S&P 500 while it marched on mightily and relentlessly upward. I'm afraid if we buy on his unsubstantiated opinion that oil and gas is "undervalued", that the OSX will continue its unrelenting downward spiral.