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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skipperr who wrote (527)	12/5/1998 2:58:00 PM
From: genaro	Respond to of 99985

AAW Skipper, You embarrass me...<gggg> I am just a busted up old carpenter that was forced to find a new way to make a living. Knowing myself and knowing I'm too quick for my own good, P%F helps keep me focused. Daytrading with Stochastics gives me the Twirly Basterds. But, like building, good preparation and a solid foundation makes for a safer, quicker project. It takes time to set up and build a new Hospital or Telescope. Placing the forms like picking a stock and sector. Pour the mud like making the trade. Stripping it off like measuring your success. Hopefully it comes out straight, with no blowouts or accidents. Slow and methodical. Not exicting but you go home happy. The majority of us do not receive the needed instruction to understand the financial workings of the market. It was extremely difficult to start at the beginning and play catch up at 40. The urge to just jump in was overwhelming. To go from simple observation, to an understanding of FA to a working knowledge of TA, to developing your OWN philosophy, to picking a tool you can trust, in my case P&F,over 3 loooong years, and then to actually enter the market and not get completely wiped out, has been one of the most rewarding experiences I have ever had. I think I have reduced my risk factor considerably by being so methodical. Now if I could just remember how to spell I will feel I have accomplished something. You are probably correct in being careful with the NYSE Bullish % being so high. Like in stochastics, depending on your risk factor, you can use a 20-80% range or a 30-70% range in evaluating indicators. As the Bullish % has risen so fast, I lean to the latter. The #2 indicator or short term indicator, the Optional Bullish % has just done a 3 point reversal which suggests some near term caution. I still consider myself a newbie and am slightly embarrassed posting my thoughts amongst so many guru's. P%F monitors supply and demand. I buy into the camp which see's a near term retracement with a strong rally to all time highs through the first part of the year and a long slow correction starting about month 5 to the end of the year. My reasons are the amount of funds coming into the market from the boomers, the amount of liquidity the Fed will Keep creating, and the historical tendency for the market to stay up in the two years prior to a presidential election. Also because the sound of the herd is deafening, eg.' What do you mean what's the PE'. Longer term a 12-16 year bearish market while the US heads into the 21st century and has to decide if it is still the country of the founding fathers, and the third world moves into the 20th century and the new generation of leaders reforms the financial infustrucure of their fathers. Then we will see the next great Bull. And lots of opportunity along the way... BWDIK As far as being dedicated, I live in Hawaii. 4.23AM SI time is only 12.23 in Paradise. I am permanently assigned to the SI nite crew. Aloha Doug