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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: llamaphlegm who wrote (29008)	12/5/1998 12:11:00 PM
From: KeepItSimple	Respond to of 164684

It appears the publicity regarding Amazon's valuation is reaching critical mass. These companies are a victim of their own stock- the valuations have reached such absurd levels that they can't "stay under the radar" anymore. Every journalist is writing articles about it, and even the staunch bulls on CNBC are starting to snicker and joke about every internet company out there whenever the subject comes up. I don't think there has to be "an event" that will cause stocks like Amazon to collapse, but rather a slow buildup of hype and negative press that will result in people trampling over one another trying to lock in profits. Indeed, the price for Amazon/ebay/any other overprice e-tailer may end up LOWER than it would have been had they not skyrocketed so quickly. In otherwords, we could be looking at a 15 dollar stock in a very short period of time. Just look at what happened to the price of theglobe.com and onsale after it became clear the stock had peaked.. Those things were cut in half in one or two days. For the non-math majors out there, that'll be a 90 dollar haircut on Amazon. :)

To: llamaphlegm who wrote (29008)	12/5/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: jach	Respond to of 164684

<"the web gets ugly: the ".com" is for competition not community" ...> As for mo and here at the SI, ".COM stands for Crazy Overhyped Market-valuation" When x'mas is over the joy ride will be over too. During this month and up till the after x'mas qtr earnings release, these hyper activity will somehow linger and sort of pick-up sputtering steam here and there. But, after the earnings release, the reality will sink in that the Web-Commerce for consumers's market is just another boring, low-profit, high-inventory retail shopping that is in fact not different from Safeway, Walmart or Office Depot stores. The PE for this type of market segment is around 10 to 20. With potential a few pennys (will be very generous here giving 17 cents earnings) in 2001, AMZN valuation for an outrageous PE of 20 will be 0.17x20 = $3.40. Remember this price is for 2001 x'mas season, and not now in 1998. That's why AMZN is 10$ stock (very generous here too, x'mas spirit in-check), if it is lucky enough to still survive 2 years later. All imho.