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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (38289)	12/5/1998 4:44:00 PM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 132070

The Russians have been dumping for many years. The oil crash is a result of demand falling off from Asia. Asia was responsible for virtually all of the demand growth for oil during the '90s. Tom

To: Ilaine who wrote (38289)	12/5/1998 5:34:00 PM
From: accountclosed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Coby, I am not sure how to answer your question and get at what you were trying to ask exactly. If you buy a house, does it matter what you think it is worth? Or do you put your head in a jar and never pay attention? By buying individual securities, we are per se using our judgment and saying that the ones we select are in some way more attractive than the others in the universe of possibilities. To make that decision, we need some sort of framework. Valuation is the framework that I recommend. Other frameworks include momentum investing, technical analysis, etc. One theory of value investing is that in the long run , stocks achieve their fair value. The people who are participating on this thread, on the whole, believe that sometime this bubble will be deflated. Do any of us know when that will be? No. But the idea of all of this is to do a little better, not to be perfect. It's not a game where one can get every timing right, every blip anticipated in advance. In baseball, you go to the hall of fame if you hit .300. In investing, you go to the hall of fame if you can consistently beat the market averages. If your true answer is "what difference does it make what I think something is worth if the market doesn't agree with me?", then exactly what do you think this process is about? What is it that you think you are doing? If not creating a model of what is right and then placing your bets accordingly, what are you doing? (rhetorical) Skeets is right, if you don't think you can outjudge the market, buy a mutual fund.

To: Ilaine who wrote (38289)	12/5/1998 5:53:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

cb, sounds like you've had some great trades. you do use valuation as a model b/c you said you wouldn't buy here. your stocks can keep going up. keep an eye on them b/c, historically, a 40-50 pe for forward eps growth of 20% is awful rich. i'd say the avg for a company like lu is probably 25-30. that assumes no glitches ;-) watch your investments closely. sell when they begin to weaken. lock in the EXCELLENT profits and BRAGGING rights. maybe sell half and let the rest ride. that, in and of itself, reduces risk. maybe sell 1/3 or 2/3. you are your own captain and guide your own ship. that was a great buy in hindsight. it is much more difficult to go from $100-$150 than $60-$100, all else being equal. and... all else is equal. at least for now... btw, you can't beat those returns with a wet noodle :-)