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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (38313)	12/5/1998 10:34:00 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 132070

I think Mary's point was that, despite individual instances of irrationality, overall the market is rational. I know that is antithetical to Burke's contrarianism, but at the same time complimentary, because he also assumes that the market is, at least, predictable, which is not so different from rational. We are all standing around guessing, and betting, based on past performance. Whether or not the market is rational, being able to intuit which way it will go requires an implicit belief that future movements can be predicted by the past.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (38313)	12/6/1998 8:16:00 AM
From: Amelia Carhartt	Respond to of 132070

Skeeter: To go along with your thinking, did you happen to see the 60 Minutes Y2K piece last weekend? I thought it was well done but the most striking comment to me was one made by an MIT computer guru. The one thing he said he had concluded for sure was "human nature has not changed in 4,000 years". What's the old saw? The more things change the more they remain the same. Just moving alot faster these days.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (38313)	12/6/1998 1:05:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Skeeter, >>>why do you reach that conclusion? why can't mass hysteria occur? why can't greed blind rational thought. <<< I don't have the academic credentials or economic knowledge that Mike or most of the people on this thread might have. The advantage I may have is that I have been around awhile longer and couldn't help but pick up some observations and at the same time I don't have much in the way of preconceived notions that I have to defend. In our discussion last night, Antoine has perhaps talked me into thinking about a new paradigm. Except this new paradigm I'm thinking about may not be all that new. I remember very vaguely from my catholic school days of hearing about Teilhard de Chardin (sp) the Jesuit priest who talked about how modern society (by that he meant the 20's & 30's) is somehow (almost mystically) connected and that out of that there is a collective wisdom. Several years ago, I think it was Wired magazine that did an article that connected de Chardin's philosophy to the Internet. They suggested that Teilhard de Chardin predicted the coming of the Internet - and somehow gave new meaning to a collective intelligence. The stock market may now be exhibiting the effects of this new/old paradigm. And, the conclusion may be that instead of mass hysteria, instead of some evil that may be taking over us - the collective intelligence ultimately may deliver the truth - that it may be positive rather than something hysterical or evil. I am not saying that we have achieved the end of history - and that everything we know has been turned around or that the laws of business cycle or risks inherent in investing has changed. Calculus is still calculus. Only this is a new equation - the delta or the rate of change is steeper. Maybe the stock market is telling us that the Internet is something that is positive and the changes that it brings may be steeper and have more consequences than many of the old fuddy duddy's might think. Just because there are things going on that we (in the eye of the hurricane - so to speak) can't see (ie, the Internet investing mania) doesn't necessarily mean that it is evil or some sort of mass hysteria or mass stupidity that is taking place. Just because Mike spends 8 hours a day on the Internet doesn't mean that he is willing or able to see the changes that are taking place before his own eyes In fact, in this new paradigm, evil such as Hitler's - the vision and will of a mad man is less likely to be imposed. The marriage of the stock market with the openness of the Internet (where there is a free exchange of ideas - good and bad) may be the ultimate in democracy - and that the outcome is rather positive than negative. Mary