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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (5395)	12/6/1998 2:32:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78748

Paul and I think similarly, but generally we give each other ideas - i.e. we start with different stocks. The fact that we are both in CYM for the same reason, independently of each other, gives me additional conviction that I did not make a mistake on my analysis. Maybe we're both wrong, but if I saw Mike Burry and Paul Senior buying something independently of each other, I'd certainly give it a look. CYM has among the lowest cost copper mines in the world. In addition they have coal and gold mining assets. I think the only thing more unpopular than copper and gold mines today is Ken Starr. But Ken doesn't pay a 7% dividend. I have no idea what the catalyst will be, but copper will not trade below 80 cents and gold will not trade below $320 forever. CYM has historically been an awful investment to hold long term. You've got to pick off the big moves. You've got to get both the buy and the sell right, because the wind is not at your back on this one. Ben Graham used to tell this story in his class which Warren Buffett related in an old Berkshire report: A rancher takes his horse to the vet and says "Look, I don't know what to do with this animal. Some days he can run like a thorougbred, other days he is lame as a mule." The vet thought for a moment, and said "When he can walk, sell him." That is my strategy for Cyprus Amax. Jim

To: Paul Senior who wrote (5395)	12/6/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78748

Barrons has got a very intriguing piece on Maxxam (MXM) a wheeler-dealer holding company with a very interesting valuation. It has a very thin float and the article hypes the valuation. I would guess this stock jumps big tomorrow. But if you are looking at it (and I don't know how you wouldn't be if you saw this article!) answer me one question. The company has 1.8 billion of debt, or $257 a share. The article never explicitly backed this figure out of the valuation it outlined. I estimate that about 1/3 of that debt is buried in the Kaiser valuation (Maxxam owns 60% of Kaiser Aluminum) but what about the rest?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (5395)	12/7/1998 3:32:00 PM
From: Andrew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

PFINA picked by Al Frank's Prudent Speculator as "stock of month" in 12/2/98 issue. according to report ".5x sales; 1.15x book; 8X current earnings" They just closed on immediately accretive acquisition of Green Mfg which adds over 20% to historical revenue stream. Currently at $9.share, their 3-5 yr target $18. 3.3 mm shares outstanding. 9/30 debt was used to close on green acquisition the last week of september so enterprise value vs trailing numbers is not apples to apples and pro-forma financials in footnotes not detailed enough. But they paid about same .5x sales for Green. dec qtr will be first qtr to see combined income statement stream.