Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bwe who wrote (11011)	12/6/1998 8:48:00 AM
From: chartseer	Respond to of 34816

Thanks again Bruce for your explicit analysis of DELL. With my bearish opinion of the general market and your analysis I'll bet on the puts at this juncture. Thanks again. Then again what the heck do I know? Chartseer

To: Bwe who wrote (11011)	12/6/1998 8:54:00 AM
From: Mr. BSL	Respond to of 34816

Bruce, AMEX Sector SPDR update - This is posted by LARS on the Brinker Thread. * New Sector Index Shares For The AMEX * Omaha World-Herald November 23, 1998 - Expect to see more SPDRs, DIAMONDs and other so-called index shares in 1999 - And also expect many of these index shares on the AMEX to be much more tax efficient then their mutual fund industry friends (per JayBaker VP of Derivative Marketing and Research for the AMEX) - A major firm will introduce about 30 new investments for the AMEX - No one knows the firm yet but the new securities would represent other indexes such as the Russell 2000 and the NASDAQ 100 - There will also be 9 sector SPDRs competing DIRECTLY with Fidelity Select Funds - Investors have poured $11 billion into SPY since they started trading in 1993 - SPDRs are the most actively traded stock on the AMEX and have more daily volume than all but two stocks on the NYSE - DIAMONDs are also among the most actively traded stocks on the AMEX - Baker pointed out SPDRs and other index shares trade throughout the day so investors can get them at market price rather than the end of day price they get with MFs - He also noted the index shares are MUCH MORE tax efficient than regular MFs - The SPDR has distributed 9 cents worth of capital gains in it five years of existence compared with 55 cents distributed by Vanguard Index 500 - Plus the SPDR holds only $1 a share worth of unrealized capital gains, versus the $24 to $28 a share the Vanguard Index 500 currently holds - The real damage is done by capital gains distributions in capital accounts - SPDR makes fewer distributions and has so much less unrealized capital gains because each SPDR share is a piece of a unit investment trust that holds the corresponding stocks - When an investor sells a SPDR share their piece of the trust is sold to someone else - The corresponding stock is NOT sold out of the trust so there is no gain distributed to holders - If their were a big run on SPDRs the trust should still be able to avoid selling shares - If a lot of people wanted to sell traders would buy SPDRs and sell a corresponding amount of futures to hedge against losses so no shares would be sold out of the trust - MFs have to sell shares when they get redemptions and are required to pass on all their gains to shareholders - SPDR has been able to keep unrealized gains lower by passing along many of them to arbitrageurs who are constantly trading the difference between options, futures, indexes and index shares - Baker said they only have $100 million in unrealized gains because they have pushed out the lowest-priced stock - E.G. If an arbitrageur redeems 1 million SPDR shares @ $100, the trust will give him $100 million worth of S&P 500 stocks (the arbitrageur gets the current market price as his cost basis so he doesn't mind taking the shares)

To: Bwe who wrote (11011)	12/6/1998 9:35:00 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34816

Morning Bruce... thanks for the update on DELL...as an interested party<g>, i always like your imput... The difference with me & chartseer, is simply he's bearish & i'm bullish... I looked at the P&F charts on the SPX & DJIA...there is a marked difference... The SPX rallied off 1135 straight up to 1190 "the top"...reversed down to 1155 support...reversed again to 1175 recently and then hit 1155 support again and held...it now sits at 1176, needs to break 1190 and go to 1195 a DTB signal...it's just 18 points away... as for the DJIA, i've felt all along that 8800 was strong support, and we have not reversed back up 3 boxes yet..9050 would do that...however the DJIA would have to move all the way up to 9400 to break a DTB signal... there is a definate message here...The market's health in general via the SPX, is doing a lot better than the DOW....a good sign...500 stocks vis a vis 30.... So for DELL to move, you're right the market would HAVE to help it...as Judy said it's range bound for now...DELL's 50dmva is around 60 bucks...it's hit that twice and held...it would take another sharp correction from these levels to break that number... There is a super buying opportunity in DELL if it moves to 59-60...IMO this stock will lead the techs higher from that selloff...of course if it prints 69, then all bets are off..74 would be a BSB(blue sky breakout}......:>} A very good friend Ike, is very nervous right now at the 1180 strike for the SPX, he's saying we will have a very difficult time breaking thru it...even though we're only 4-5 points away... on the other hand...2 heavy hitters I follow with their respective system signals are BOTH on a buy....that's TT & GZ...Judy knows them... Markets are fun huh??? now what about the indicators on P&F??? Bruce what are they saying.... NYSEBP, and the other 2 early indicators...where are they at as of today??? and thanks again for your read....

To: Bwe who wrote (11011)	12/6/1998 6:24:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34816

Hello Bruce (DELL) Here's a chart to go with your outstanding comments: * 73 X * 72 X O * 71 X O * 70 X O * 69 X X O * < Bearish Resistance Line 68 X O X O X < Buy Signal @ 68 67 X O X O X X O 66 X X O X O X O X O 65 X O X O X O X O X O 64 X O X O X O X O X 63 O X O O X O X O X 62 O X High Pole Top > O O X 61 O X O X * O < Sell Signal @ 61 60 O X X X O X * O 59 O X O X O X O X X * < Bearish Support Line 58 O X O X O X O X O X * + < Interm. Uptrend Line 57 O X X O X O X O X X O X + * 56 O X O X O X O O X O X O X + 55 O X O X O X O X O X O X + 54 O X O X O X O X O X O X + 53 O X O O O X O X O + 52 O X O X O X + 51 O X O X O + + < Revised Bullish 50 O X O X + + Support Line 49 O X O X + 48 O X O X + 47 O O X + 46 O X + 45 O X + 44 O X + 43 O X + 42 O X + 41 O + + In further of your comments from a previous post relative to trend lines. If a stock is above the Bullish Support Line and on a buy signal, I classify it as long and short term bullish. If it's on a sell signal, it's long term bullish and short term bearish. I use the same thinking below the Bearish Support Line. On this stock you mentioned that the Bearish Resistance Line is in control. I agree but think this might be confusing to some for this reason: Dell is trading miles above its "Offical" Bullish Support Line, it's long term bullish, -- so some may wonder why we are discussing the Bearish Resistance Line? Especially since DWA always shows either an in charge "Offical" Bullish Support Line or Bearish Resistance Line at one time. They are never depicted on a chart as both being active. That is, when one ends, the other begins. Chartcraft on the other hand, will actually draw in an "Unoffical" Bullish Support Line or Bearish Resistance Line for visual purposes. Perhaps we should consider using "Offical" and "Unoffical" designations. (Or perhaps I should take another strong snort off my paper bag full of airplane glue and play back how the Seahawks got ref screwed in the Meadowlands.) Bruce's Comments relative to the above chart as follows: DELL update: The HPT at $62 led to a short lived sell signal at $61 that met support from the Bearish Support Line at $59. DELL turned around and gave a buy signal at $68, but the immediate pullback was not a good sign. Further evidence that the BRL (currently at $69) is in charge of the chart. Important support is at $58 from an Intermediate Uptrend Line (IUL). A Short Term Uptrend Line is at $61. The BSL is at $50. With DELL's RS bearish and with the stock trading below it's BRL, I would look to buy DELL for a trade closer to the IUL to ensure a better shot at short term profits. The next sell signal would be at $59, but with the IUL so close to that bottom, a sell at $59 would probably not cause too much damage. Of course, the overall health of the market would have to be taken into consideration. From a long term perspective, which is the one that I personally operate under, I would need to see the BRL fall while the stock was on a buy signal. I'm quite sure that if the stock were to give a buy signal at $69, not only would the BRL be taken out, but DELL would be that much closer to reversing up on it's RS chart into an up column, a place it hasn't resided in since September. All IMHO, Bruce