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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (578)	12/6/1998 11:34:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim, I don't know where to begin on your commentary as you go from Mexican graft, Starr, to comparing the Japanese top eight years ago. As its Sunday I'll express some personal opinions. On graft.. of course its here, though not as bad as most of the world. I think the common phrase here is ".. if you play ball," then you can join the insider club in whatever business you're in. I constantly get requests for work in this format. First there is the bid itself, then there's the hook which goes like this.. "If you give us a really cheap job this time, there's a ton of work we can give you later on." Its been my experience that these favor requesting people exist at all levels in business and politics and rarely come through with more work unless you've got the 'goods' on them... which of course just prolongs the game and extends it to others including your own suppliers and contacts. Best advice is to stay clear or get it in writing. I'm not sure what you mean by Banana Republic finances. My opinion of Starr is that he's a well intended but narrow minded man who's satisfied that life's answers and society's cures are found by confining behavior. By the way, how does one earn a million plus from private practice while also being paid by the government to run what I assume is a full time investigation? And yes, Clinton's nose gets longer each day.. but, I have a feeling this isn't the thread to discuss politics so lets let it end here. Markets... Japan comparision. What makes real value? That's the basic question which plagues us all. Value and markets can be reduced to logical conclusions in a variety of directions each contrary to the other. Here's something else to consider. I think there's a global economic war going on right now and there always has been. Its the only way I can make sense of extreme inbalances. When Japan rose to its peak it launched a buying binge on the world which wasn't well received. From Rockefeller Center to most of Hawaii's real estate to Europe and South America, Japan Inc. was a formidable financial powerhouse. Their markets reflected that same confidence with extreme valuations. The world, especially the US and Europe fought back both politically and economically. Higher valuations are allowed with the victors, that's the way the game is played. In order to complete your comparison of the pattern of Japan's crash to our markets I feel you must also conclude that the US grip on world economics is about to be usurped or resort to a more general opinion that all markets (of high powered countries and low), all run an economic cycle of boom and bust. By the way, I really enjoy your "Analysis of end of Day Closing prices and recommendations," keep posting. Jim

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (578)	12/6/1998 12:26:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

I concur with your assessment of the employment report. I also found it funny in a sick way in how they spun it in relation to all the job cut news. "All these corporations just announced layoffs in the last couple days but see the Fed report, everything is fine after all". No mention that the recent announcements are new and won't show up in a report looking back a month, not the fact that permanent type jobs are being lost and the new jobs being created were all construction jobs due to good weather that will go away as the snow starts falling and the ground starts freezing (It snowed here last night for the first time). Many of the new jobs I am sure are also X-mas shopping type retail jobs as well that will disappear once St. Nick makes his rounds Ho Ho Ho. Lee

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (578)	12/6/1998 1:43:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The Best Of Both Worlds... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ >>>Many months ago I maintained that as long as employment is strong the market will move up. This Friday just proved my theory. The problem with last Friday report was that retail and retail related jobs made most of the growth.<<< ********************************************************************** Haim: With an accommodative FED stance and lower unemployment numbers there is a sense that it's safe to invest... Friday's counter market performance to an unemployment number that normally would send fears of a FED tightening through the markets has sent us a strong signal that the market wants to go up... One of the lessons I've learned is if the opposite thing happens that you would normally expect, go with the reaction... The market has a way of giving mixed signals, but the actual market reaction to the news is the key for future market direction or individual stock direction... Jim