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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LowtherAcademy who wrote (38344)	12/6/1998 1:39:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Lew, Novellus and Micron are both stocks on which I have puts and on which I plan to buy more in the future. Using both my 90/10 and thirds approach, I currently own a third position in both. I will probably add a third to Novellus in any up move next week. With MU, I am probably going to wait until just before the eps announcement. No matter how lousy the eps, or loss, they will be better than last quarter and trumpeted as a huge "turnaround" at this touty co. I belive most of the cynics are buying on the rumor and will sell on news that, despite being better solely due to the seasonal factor and Compaq's new direct co., is still horrible for a $50 stock. If you don't understand the 90/10 or thirds, go to the home page of SI, click on The Internet Financial Connection, and, in the archives, read my article, "Tech Stock Speculating While Wearing a Belt and Suspenders." MB

To: LowtherAcademy who wrote (38344)	12/6/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

lew, let me give you a perspective. mine ;-) i bought june $40 puts on nvls. first, nvls was in the low $20s not too long ago. business has not substantially changed, though it may be slightly better. not 52 week high better ;-) i see dram collapsing in early 1999 as demand tails off, the excess pc box crunch hits and the competitors decide they have to produce to be cost effective and they reduce shrinks, etc... i also expect other economies to continue to wilt and, eventually, affect the us. i see nvls at $20 by march. april-june is insurance ;-) i paid $2 3/16 and expect a $20 return. 6 months is a hella long time. just look over the last 2 months. if the market continues up i will add either mu or xlnx puts depending on the premiums. i will go with the lowest premium. mu is a definite put IF dram prices collapse, the stock price surges as analysts pimp it, some dolt analyst says mu is "in the best of all worlds," and i'm told by an mu bull or two that 1. mu the stock going up predicts the future with certainty, 2. pricing must be wrong b/c the stock price is right and people aren't that dumb and 3. that i'm wasting bandwidth posting about price declines. don't laugh, it all happened last year ;-) i'm also eyeing cmb or citi for about a 4 month play. as with nvls, i usually buy 20-30% out of the moneys on stocks priced 100-200% above fair value by my own calculations. a couple keys. spread out your put buying over time - be patient... or become one. manias last a long time. diversify out by company and industry. my cmb puts were bought with gtw and mu and amzn. i thought those three were gimmes and cmb was a just a spec. i reloaded twice on amzn. my spec was a 10 bagger while my confident plays were all goose eggs. see, the market must be irrational ;-)