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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Strauss who wrote (586)	12/7/1998 8:47:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Jim, >>>>>>>> I still don't like the idea of New Lows higher than 40 for 6 days in a row, but I'm not going to fight the tape...It's too sticky...<<<<<<<<<<< I agree that the increase in the NEW LOWs is not a good sign. It really needs to improve, and improve quickly/strongly for this market to set new highs. I am mainly a short-term trader with a focus of less than 30 days, and normally under 2 weeks, so the following comment is only targeted for the shorter term. You mention not fighting the tape. Not considering technicals, charts the short-term tape apears to be weak for the following reasons. 1) the recent decline lasted 7 days which is by far greater than any dip during the runup from the OCT lows. The average decline during this period was only 2-3 days, so this decline is substantially longer. 2) During the recent decline there were 2 days where the DOW lost close to 200 points. During the runup since OCT, the largest 1 day decline was only about 100 points. 3) Fridays pop up was strong but still less than the strong single 1 day declines of 200. I kept my comments strickly focused on "the tape" and did not include other factors like volume/market internals/technicals/etc. The short-term tape shows weakening, but would agree that the long term tape(strickly price movement) shows up still. Seeya