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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (591)	12/6/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Patrick, I'll agree that markets are relative.. but I'll hold off on agreeing that "everything is relative." In making judgements on valuation most resort to FA or TA, but there's another powerful force which is the political/economic strength of the country. The world is at economic war though we commonly use different terms like trading blocks-alliances, import export duties-tariffs- agreements, balance of payments, currency reserves buying and selling, printing of money and a host of other terms. They all describe day in and day out conflict which isn't always directed at resolution or peaceful intent. The country or countries winning the war at any given time will be allowed a premium valuation for their stocks... sometimes in the face of obvious over valuation. Beginning in the 90's there's a new kid on the block. Its not just country against country, alliance of countries against alliance.. but new international pirates (warring parties without a national interest)... like Long Term Capital Management, Soros, and many we don't see in the news. They cruise the international markets with satellite transfer speed pouncing on weakness and opportunity. Much like Europe had to coordinate against piracy, the world's nations today have to coordinate against attacks, while doing battle with each other, while making agreements of convenience with pirates.. Soros on Russia. To get a measure of how much clout these entities have consider that LTCapital leveraged nearly 125 billion. I'm discussing this because as we compare past bubbles or market highs its well to also consider the political strength underlying the nation's market. The US market has varried in influence on a world stage since 1929. This doesn't dismiss business cycles, its just another perspective on estimating valuation and strengths.

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (591)	12/6/1998 3:47:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Patrick, I think there are a lot of misunderstanding about the Japanese banks and the bail out plans. It is amazing that the FIRREA, the Act that ended the US S&L crisis is 10 years old. Many in the market did not remember RTC which ended 5 years ago, not to mention the crisis itself that started in the early 80s. Based on what I have read, the Japanese plan is nowhere near the RTC plan which in itself was already a less than perfect solution. The Japanese plan is a true bail out with little contribution to the ailing economy. weeklypost.com I suspect that wall street is on the optimistic side regarding the second largest economy in the world. Were they smart or foolish when they bought Rockerfeller Center and Hawaii during the peaks? I suppose we can ask that same question regarding the "investors" buying AMZN or ONSL. As long as there is a greater fool, don't worry about it. Ramsey

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (591)	12/6/1998 4:16:00 PM
From: genaro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

< For the same reason, many who track international markets don't think the Japanese have changed and will continue to make such errors.> Patrick, couldn't agree more. Work for a Japanese Owned Company. Face and Place more important than sound practice or the bottom line. Culture makes it hard to change. Selling out of Hawaii at huge loses, but still buying up Mexico... My solution to fix Japan... Mandatory retirement at 65 BWDIK Aloha Doug