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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (594)	12/6/1998 2:40:00 PM
From: SE	Respond to of 99985

ALL: I have a two very basic question on MACD interpretation. I know how to spot a bullish or bearish divergence. Is there any way to compute the possible or potential gain from a divergence in the charts? Second question relates to the opposite of a divergence. Let's say the SPOO sets a high at 1180 and a basic MACD reading is at 1.2. Now if the SPOO sets a new high at 1195 and the MACD reading is at 1.8, does that tell us anything? MACD has confirmed the price move, but can we get any further directional analysis from that. Thanks in Advance. -Scott

To: j g cordes who wrote (594)	12/6/1998 3:25:00 PM
From: stockycd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

All, Wow guys! I just got finished looking at my weekly charts for all the major indicies. My conclusion is that this coming week is of major significance in relation to the mid-term direction of the markets. Observations (weekly charts analysis) 1. A double top may have formed on the DJIA and NASDAQ. If we finish next week higher than we start the week, we may have a chance to break the double tops. If we close next week lower than we open; I'm afraid a short (few weeks) term down trend may precipitate which could lead us to lower levels for the DJIA and the NASDAQ. 2. It appears that a rising wedge has formed on the Transports. If this is the case, I would expect resolution of it in the next couple of weeks with a drop to the 2945 area. 3. A morning star candle pattern has formed on the DMARK/DOLLAR exchange index. This signals further strengthening in the DMARK thus implying overall weakness in the dollar. 4. The only show of iron-clad strength is the SOX. The weekly candles indicate no slowing down. If the overall market is getting weaker, however, a "evening star" candle pattern should start forming. A signal for this would be modest gains next week with a sharp drop beginning the following week (expiration)week. If last week was the start of another major decline, I would expect next week to be flat to slightly down, with acceleration downward during expiration week. My outlook has turned neutral short term with a lean to the bearish side mid term. If last week's sell-off continues, I place the DJIA at 8390 within 3 weeks; the NASDAQ at 1693 in 4 weeks and the TRANSPORTS at 2800 area by Christmas. With the FED babysitting the markets, anything is possible but I have a feeling that another rate cut is partially priced in or a cut could not produce the same rally as before. My opinions only, Chris

To: j g cordes who wrote (594)	12/6/1998 5:53:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Respond to of 99985

Nothing in there dissuades me from the thought that the Japanese mode of thought isn't smart by design, rather it is an issue of throwing money at whatever. Let's say you or I are newly rich. This does not make us intelligent investors. The pattern of Japanese overseas investment over the years suggests to me at least a child that suddenly has money to burn. Buying Pebble Beach, Rocky Center, and so on were not exactly world class coups. The most recent foray into Asian loans just reiterates the possibility that the Japanese still are reaching and have not learned from prior mistakes. My suggestion? Sell 'em Furby's at a few hundred a pop.