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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (32509)	12/6/1998 4:50:00 PM
From: Elmer Flugum	Respond to of 95453

interactive.wsj.com

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (32509)	12/8/1998 1:43:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Faith, patience & conviction... ''just gotta stay in the pocket'' I don't think it takes much vision or creativity to buy a commoditized sector when the commodity is at a 12 year low and at an all time low in ''real'' dollars. What it does take; which in itself makes it so very profitable; is the conviction to go against the grain, to buy when everyone else is selling, to see the light through all the darkness; when you are sure of the fundamentals, the markets emotional over-reaction and you see the absolute value in a company, stock and in a sector. This is a historic opportunity to get ''doubles & triples'' all most accross the board in a realistic 18-24 month period. Deadmoney ? - one could sit here for 3-5 years and outperform the market by a wide margin. Active trading is so hard; especially when Institutions get those ''private lunches'' and those phone calls from their buddies at the trading desks... but, what the individual investor can do - is seize opportunities. At the peak of tax loss and/or short selling by the Mutual Funds &Institutions, anticipate it - and buy the best of the best as they get sold off. Have faith in the mathematical fundamentals. Where are the mathematical statistics supporting $9 crude ? Where are the dramatically reduced demand numbers from Asia or elsewhere, proportionate to $9 Oil ? Where are the non-compliance numbers on the OPEC cuts (there aren't any) ? Where are the massive increases in supply build (there aren't any) ? -- none of the pertinent statistics that directly effect the ''true'' fair-value price of crude have turned negative to anywhere near the degree as reflected in current commodity prices. While $18 crude is obviously not right around the corner; we have OPEC strongly in compliance, we have reduced production by the entire Oil Industry, we have lots of shut in wells that are no longer profitable at these prices and most importantly, we have actual small increases in worldwide demand numbers. No decrease in demand, just a reduction in the historically normal ''growth'' in demand. We simply have a very heavilly trader impacted market. Perhaps more so than at any time in decades. Everyone from Rainwater to the Saudi Oil Minister have mentioned the ''artificial'' nature that ''Traders'' have had on crude oil. The realities of supply & demand fundamentals; especially in light of OPEC compliance and the absolute, unequivocal historical Global coordinated Rate cuts and stimulus packages; just can not be ignored here. This will go down in history as a once in a lifetime commodity pricing anomaly. We have historic steps being taken to ease this soft Global demand into a soft landing; which is in actuality - still in a GROWTH mode; yet we have had a historic crash in the commodity. Further, with all most no parallel; we have companies like RIG, FGI, CXIPY, SCSWF or VTS etc. with solid profitability and many companies experiencing solid growth and through acquisitions of income generating assets or companies; will strongly rebound bigger and better from this downturn. These companies and stocks are priced as if their sheer existance is no better than 50/50 ! Hello ??? RIG DO CXIPY etc. aren't going anywhere. Fear, and basically the Fear of the unknown - as in what will the merger of Exxon/Mobil do to the service & driller stocks? Fear as to what will the Venezeulan elections bring ? Fear, as in what will OPEC do ? People; fear breeds herd mentality and this emotion leads to oversold prices. If Warren Buffet et al hasn't taught us this lesson by now... who will ? One must be in the minority to make these types of returns; as mathematically stocks can only get oversold to this degree when the vast majority disagrees.... GLBL was a prime example of late; decimated and short sold down to $5... sometimes - you just gotta believe... <<..."Tuesday, Dec 1 1998 10:57AM ET Reply # of 32609 GLBL @ $5 --- BUY...GLBL @ $5 and average in on each dollar down to subzero if need be; no better buy in the entire patch imho. Don't see a fall below $5 longterm - dipped to $4 7/8 - use some limit buys to ''steal'' this on intra-day trading lows. Money in the Bank. Don't just load the truck, rent a semi....! ">> <<..." I would think that GLBL could bounce to $7-10 on ''any'' positive crude news, a share buy back, short covering and/or the end of the stream of bad Industry news we've had of late. $12-14 is a range we saw just in the Sept. highs after the end of August blowoff. So a short term double/triple is not wishfull thinking. ''>>