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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bald Man from Mars who wrote (3790)	12/6/1998 9:38:00 PM
From: Rick Faurot	Respond to of 43080

Of course we'll have a bear market again. Not in the next two or three months though. Way too much up momentum right now. Rick

To: Bald Man from Mars who wrote (3790)	12/6/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: SteveDavis	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 43080

IMO, I can make the argument that the fundamentals are in place to sustain a bull market for a very long time into the future. As long as we have low and going lower inflation, low and going lower interest rates and the rapid development of the computer this could go on for a very long time. All of the bozzos that talk of a bear market like 73-75 fail to mention that we had 10-12% inflation and a high of 21% prime interest rates. We had a tax/spend Congress and no leadership. We were also hit by the first energy war. Think how many people used to invest in real estate syndications, oil/gas limited partnerships etc. All of that money now goes into the market. We did not have the ability to trade online as we were locked out of the market by the "professionals". The massive growth of the REIT in the last several years is proof that the market is here to stay. The large institutions are in the process of converting their owned real estate into shares of a REIT. Real estate is a highly illiquid asset. It may take a year and 12 lawyers to sell a large office building or regional mall. It takes 10 minutes to sell the same amount of assets in a publicly traded REIT. Now, I am not saying we won't have some corrections or pullbacks. And if the truck "pulls back" on top of you that hurts, but my firm belief is that the market will relentlessly trudge upward. There will be sectors that get killed ie oil sevices now. There will be many of the net stocks that go away, but there will be some large winners. Remember, AOL, Prodigy and Compuserve were the big three. Sears and IBM owned Prodigy. HR Block owned Compuserve. Now AOL is going into the SP500!!! I don't know what happened to the other two. Our job on this thread and others is to see if we can sort out the winners from the losers. By combining our assets I really think we can. The little guy now has the advantage over the big guy. We can move faster and with more per centage gain than they can. They are handicapped with too much money. Think how long it takes to buy 1 million shares of CPQ, for example. Now that is only 38 Million to invest but they have billions in their checkbook. So when they start buying we see the increase in volume, step in get our 2/3 points and are out by the time they have completed their 1M purchase. Sorry I am so longwinded but this is like being in on the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and having already read the history book. Let's make some money together. Steve