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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ira Player who wrote (3796)	12/7/1998 12:49:00 AM
From: SteveDavis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 43080

Ira, I am not saying it is different because it is not different. IMO, that is exactly what brought it back so quick. Everyone realized that inflation is 1%, interest rates are low and we have moderate growth. It is very difficult to have a recession under this situation, which begets a bear market. But it can go on a very long time under this fundamental scenario. If the underlying factors change then so does the outlook. Plus you have the baby boomer demographics working in a bullish direction. Those monthly payroll deducts are going in to the market for the next decade at least. Please don't misunderstand me. It can change and go into a bear market but I just don't see how with the present set of facts in front of us. Events can effect large parts of the economy such as oil drillers, Asia effecting exporters etc. But does that effect Walmart except in a positive way of having cheaper cost of goods? So one segment of the economy balances out the weak spots. Oil is giant inflation indicator as it is involved in all of our daily lives so deeply. Almost all other spending is discretionary to a large degree so the companies just don't have the pricing power. The E-tailers are even lowering what inflation may be in the retail system. Dell Computer has a special graveyard in Austin for all of the people that have been on CNBC and encouraged their client to short this stock Keep an eye and ear out for Abby Joseph Cohen and Jeff Applegate. They speak on this subject much better than I. Good luck, Steve

To: Ira Player who wrote (3796)	12/7/1998 9:47:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 43080

Re: "... but it is precisely when people start talking about 'it's different this time' or 'the fundamental mechanisms have changed' and everyone is believing it still has a long way to go and the last few that have been on the sidelines join the masses so they don't miss the rest of the ride ... That it falls apart --- rapidly." I was following the same line of thinking when the DJIA was in the 5000's. I was wrong. It was different that time. Best wishes, I2