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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MskiHntr who wrote (24640)	12/7/1998 9:33:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

My SmartMoney Is On Novell..... Subject: Re: Novell: Give yourself a break Date: Sun, Dec 6, 1998 23:40 EST From: FKSmart Message-id: <19981206234050.21836.00001244@ng05.aol.com> Cherintec: >>Even so, when it runs up too rapidly it must consolidate (rest) for a while. The latest bounce from 16 has been on decreased volume. That should be a warning, even if not conclusive. The very high volume in the 18-9 range suggests strong resistance. I don't think that NOVL will break that soon.>> You know what I think of technical analysis. It's a lot like reading the words to so many broken sentences that end abruptly.....all along thinking, assuming, opining what the entire following paragraph AND chapter contains. Reading the sentences is the easy part. Having the understanding, guts and confidence to calmly make an investment decision based on them along without worrying about the 1-2 points of noise is quite another. >>NOVL is following a steep uprtrend that I think it will break soon. I am now projecting a decline to the 14 (+/- 1/2)) area, at which point I think it will be a great buy. The main impetus for the decline,aside from the rapid run up of NOVL, is the weakness of the NASD. Momentum indicators have given sell signals. This had not happened last week when I was projecting a downturn, but I was expecting it soon. >> You know, I hope you are right, but by the same token at some point on the road north to $20 and back down again the $17 zone is going to look very attractive. It's all a matter of perspective. I've been a buyer on steep declines when we were sinking into oblivion between $6-8 last summer/fall. I've been a seller into the early '98 euphoria shot above $10. I was a buyer on the way down back into the $9's and back into the $10's later in the spring. Then a second shot to $13 I was a buyer for the gippers out there. Now we are coming off a strong cue-stick power move. Stocks in this environment don't give too much ground and if they do they do so only grudgingly. This is just my opinion. To each his own. As for NASDAQ hitting its lows once again, my advice last Fall was to be a buyer because I felt the bearishness got so thick so fast which meant that the masses where short or out. That, plus the ordained move to 10,000 which I still think is where this market wants to go, period. All this internet stuff is just the tip of the iceberg. We are going to see more of these astounding marketshare breaking internet technology platters, portals, pod and pads that will make our heads spin. All this is caused by this exploding background of bandwidth that will fuel this trend for sometime. We are seeing new industry leaders in the making. Not all will make it to be sure, but we are witnessing the birth of Internet Wave 2. Hold on to your seatbelts. A massive mindblowing arbitrage is underway as old model industry titans scramble to try to protect there channels of distribution. Problem is: they can't without first throwing in the towel and going 1000% internet. Let's see, feel and understand the BIG picture of what is going on. No, I'm not trying to rah, rah this market. Just trying to understand the underlying power and motivations. Technical analysis will never get you much further then your nose. Every sentence looks good, sounds good and reads good, but there....... ???????????????????????? Ida5683