Mobile Everywhere
Jennifer Hagendorf
Mobile computing has become decidedly pervasive. So said a panel of industry analysts discussing the future of mobile computing at Comdex/Fall in Las Vegas.
As today's workforce becomes increasingly mobile, more and more companies are turning to desktop replacement, providing notebook computers to their employees as a means of keeping remote users up-to-date and in touch with the company, said analysts.
At the same time, ultraportable devices like mini-notebooks, Jupiter-class handheld devices running Microsoft Windows CE, palmtop computers and even smart phones are garnering increasing amounts of attention. In fact, several vendors at Comdex reported that portable devices stole the show, often attracting the largest crowds at booths where desktop PCs were also on display.
But are mobile computers just nifty gadgets or are they robust enough for widespread implementation? While there are certainly kinks to be worked out, mobile systems seem to be the wave of the future for many PC users, said analysts.
"I'm seeing a drive to mobile computers," said Rob Enderle, director of desktop and mobile technology at Giga Information Group, Cambridge, Mass.
The push toward mobile computing is cost-driven, with companies earning payback on investments in mobile PCs within less than two months, said Enderle. Mobile computing can save costs that are incurred when remote workers fall behind project deadlines because they are out of touch with their E-mail, he said.
While the total cost of ownership for notebook systems is about 20 percent higher than desktop PCs-$9,400 compared with $7,800-the price difference is made up if employees use their laptops to work one extra hour per week at home, said Kenneth Dulaney, vice president and research area director at Gartner Group Inc., Stamford, Conn., "The payback is in user productivity," said Dulaney.
One downside for companies trying to maintain a semi-mobile workforce is that it is more difficult to service a device that is disconnected from the network, said Enderle.
"If it fails, the tech guy on the other end of the phone doesn't have much more of an idea of what's wrong than you do," he said.
While fewer organizations are willing to let users have two systems, desktop replacement now makes up about 30 percent to 35 percent of the market as technology in midrange systems improves, said analysts. Still, costs of certain components of notebook PCs, such as CPUs and LCD displays, will prohibit notebook pricing from dropping to desktop levels, they said.
But handheld PCs are starting to pack performance into smaller, cheaper devices. The Windows CE-based Jupiter-class handheld PCs, for example, are available from several vendors at sub-$1,000 prices.
"It's a great companion if the prices drop below $500," said Martin Reynolds, vice president and research fellow at Gartner Group.
The drawback to the Jupiter-class devices is that even the newest version of Windows CE is not yet robust, said analysts, some of whom were troubled by the lack of CE support in the industry.
"How many third-party developers arise?" said Jerry Michalski, president of Sociate, a San Francisco-based consultancy firm. "I haven't seen a lot of grass-roots development."
Windows CE-based devices can be a shock to an organization's IT infrastructure, said Gartner Group's Dulaney. "About 15 [percent] to 20 percent of E-mail attachments are not compatible with CE," said Dulaney. "[The operating system] is not ready for E-mail deployment."
Analysts predicted future generations of CE will be stronger. "The suspicion is [using CE] will probably be a richer experience in the future," said Gerry Purdy, president and chief executive of Mobile Insights Inc., Mountain View, Calif.
Once mature, CE devices, which offer benefits such as long battery life, will change the mobile market, said Enderle.
"Folks that value mobility over performance will redefine the low end of the market," he said.
One competitor to CE devices might be highly specialized E-mail devices, said analysts. Currently, E-mail devices are based on second-class E-mail technology and are not integrated with the main system, said Reynolds.
A solution might be to build a general-purpose platform, said Michalski. "Then specify it down to vertical markets, from the Palm Pilot down to digital cameras," he said.
The keys to successful mobile computing are adequate bandwidth and connectivity, said analysts.
"In the next three or four years, you could have a cell phone act as a bonded ISDN," said Michalski.
Cellular phone technology will start to integrate with computer technology, especially in the face of partnerships between companies such as Qualcomm Inc., San Diego, and Redmond, Wash.-based Microsoft Corp. That convergence raises a few issues that need to be ironed out, said analysts.
One problem is that cellular devices do not have a standard screen size."How do you design Web pages for different screen types?" said Dulaney.
While cell phones have garnered widespread global acceptance, other future technology, such as wearable PCs, will not, said Dulaney. "It's a generational thing," he said. "Most people are not comfortable wearing a PC."
Even with all the mobile technology advances, the human factor still is the most crucial element, said analysts. The smaller the form factor, the more complex it is to design a user interface. Simply put, how small can you make a keyboard before it is impossible to type on?
"The question is, 'how do you get a human and a computer to work together?' " said Dulaney.
One analyst said it is important not to be blinded by technology because sometimes the old ways are the best.
"I found a good method for keeping track of my schedule," said Reynolds, holding up a slip of paper. "And I use a link called a pen."
Copyright ® 1998 CMP Media Inc.
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