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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crocodile who wrote (5680)	12/7/1998 6:02:00 PM
From: SofaSpud	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24905

Croc / Pricing There was a lot of talk last summer about La Nina -- the flip side of El Nino that was going to give us an unusually cold winter. To the extent people believed that, it would have been plausible for the market to build some of that into share prices. A protracted cold snap in the U.S. Northeast would start the process of working off excess inventories, and maybe set the stage for some oil price recovery through the rest of the year. And, of course, natural gas prices would be even more directly affected. The decline in NYMEX gas in the last couple of weeks makes me think that the extended Indian summer you've had down east is making the market back off on the La Nina idea. But, as I recall, that part of the world doesn't really expect REAL winter to start until around now anyway. I would think gas prices can go back up just as fast as they came down, if a real good cold snap develops. As for oil prices, I don't think we've reached the stage of "capitulation" that an article referred to last week. People are still trying to hang in there, and there doesn't seem to be any shortage of new production coming on stream. My guess is that the demand recovery is still a way off. If that's the case, the bleeding will have to continue until there's capitulation on the supply side -- until some serious production gets shut in. Six more months? Longer? Who knows.