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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (32563)	12/8/1998 2:26:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

George agreed; ie: investing versus trading... Amazingly; the great Investor's that I read or see interviewed, all seem to follow a great fundamental precept in buying individual stocks. They buy stocks with a 5 YEAR hold horizon. How many great investors have built their fortunes by ''active'' trading ? Don't recall reading about many... Trading is an entirely different subject; myself I have been ''forced'' into trading here more than I am comfortable with. However; good 'ole buying & holding here (with a 2-3-5year horizon) is awfully hard to criticize. There will be some value funds with tremendous gains that have been buying the OSX of late). While the energy sector speciality funds tend to be more trading oriented; these value funds tend to follow the 5 year hold concept. As far as buying at the bottom, or picking the bottom; I think one must review the fundamental and historic statistics of both crude oil/natural gas and the individual companies & sector itself. An analyst ( jon Lovi of MSDW ?) recently repeated a very important statistical ''bottom indicator'' - when driller stocks hit valuations of 30-40%% of their replacement values buy them. PE valuations, cash flow multiples of the E&P companies, crude oil commodity prices as compared to historic norms - all are points to use to ''buy'' a bottom. Too many people are comparing apples to oranges here; as they keep comparing the bottomless fall of this sector in May to June through August's actual eventual bottom; to where we are now. Here of late; we've had what is now a triple bottom. We are hitting all of those statistical bottom indicators from historic lows in actual crude oil prices, OSX index lows, 52 week lows, lows in PE's, lows in Asset replacement values etc. One does not have to hit ''the'' bottom here to be incredibly profitable. The upside now so vastly exceeds the downside - that this fundamental trueism alone, is reason to buy and hold. We have so much more information now; and so many more answers to the then unanswered questions, as opposed to the prior bottoms in August or October. We now have info/answers such as the Fed cuts, knowledge of LTC, the bottoming and positive rebound in the overall markets, Japan's policies, stimulus packages and the worldwide coordinated rate cuts, OPEC's continued compliance, new info from the Gulf States (which was ''leaked'' - now being denied stealing OPEC's thunder...) results from the Venezeulan election etc. We are now in so much better of a position information-wise to buy at a bottom than before; that to ignore these historically low valuations right here, right now - (especially in light of the 2 prior 50%+ allmost overnight run ups) is to miss a great opportunity imho. Remember; While it is - ''the Price of Crude - Stupid'' - there is no such thing as cheap OSX stocks and positive Crude fundamentals ! You can't buy 'em cheap while there is good news... gotta step to the pump and buy into capitulation when emotion runs rampant and when the fear of the unknown is at it's highest levels. Take advantage of the end of the year tax loss selling and buy when the shorts have bottomed these stocks. Sure one may miss the bottom by 5-7 or even 15% here, but so what ! With the upside realistically presenting ''doubles & triples'' all most across the board; the risk versus reward scenario just doesn't get much better than this...