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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SE who wrote (9728)	12/7/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

Scott found something on Prodigy BB,, I know you'll be interested!! Appel's Continuation signal "Topic: MUTUAL FUND TOOLS Subject: FASTTRACK To: XZZB43A CHARLES MEYER Date: 12/02 From: QEAH74A ROLAND SCHNABEL Time: 5:25 PM Charles: At the November meeting of the St Pete (FL) FT User Group meeting, Karl Ashey presented Appel's Market Continuation Signal (I'll call it AMC) based on notes he took at the Society of Asset Allocators and Fund Timers, Inc., meetin in Orlando earlier in the month. I have since written a Trade program to implement it which I will send in the next note. Here are Karl's notes: "Appel Market Continuation (AMC) Signal(presented Oct. 30, 1998 at SAAFTI conference by David Wright). Technique developed by Gerald Appel regarding probability of continuing market gains;over next eight to ten week period from signal date. Construction: 1. 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of S&P 500 Index 2. Apply 2.5% trading bands (envelope) of 50-day SMA 3. Repeat above using Value Line Arithmetic Index. Interpretation: 1. Signal is given when prices of BOTH indices move above respective upper 2.5 % trading bands. With signal there is an 80% probability (per data) market will continue up (make money) for the next eight to ten weeks. There is a 20% probability this signal will fail to make money. 2. This condition (move above upper trading bands) occurs about two to three times per year. 3. While this signal is in force, ignore short-term sell signals. 4. Cancellation or Expiration of Signal upon any of the following: a. when any of the two indices falls back through its 50-day SMA b. a period of ten weeks elapses since signal date. Comments: 1. This is not a buy or sell signal - use own signals. This is only a market move continuation signal. 2. Average gain is 12-13% in ten weeks. 3. This technique is also used for Sector funds but only for selection." I did not understand this last statement so I asked Karl what it ment. His reply was: "As I understand, consider only those sectors that have broken beyond their upper trading band (haven't evaluated if the 2.5% 50day SMA trading bands are too tight for sectors) and (assume) the other two markets are doing the same. I plan to work in this area this week using Metastock. I tried a few funds and the good ones visually stick out. As for the two markets, the bands seem to show when the they are in a trading band - before subsequent moves up or down and beyond the respective trading band." I think this is what you are looking for. Roland"