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Technology Stocks : PairGain Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dad of The Rock who wrote (27519)	12/7/1998 11:48:00 PM
From: Dale Knipschield	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36349

HDSL2 will be under intense & immediate price pressure, since it has been committee-designed as an open standard. Translation: Everyone uses same non-proprietary design....cheapest mfgr. wins! PAIR will not dominate HDSL2 as it has HDSL. PAIR will never be a big player in ADSL either, since it failed to build strategic alliances necessary to design an integrated end-to end system. Big winner in ADSL will be LU and ORKIT. ADSL must efficiently integrate into the embedded RBOC switches, and 65%-70% of these are LU (Western Electric). Given LU's resources, along with the giant foot in the door with the legacy switching systems, guess who's got the inside track. LU also has the largest % of embedded Digital Subscriber Line Carrier Systems, which must also ultimately integrate ADSL. In second place will be Nortel and whomever they have teamed with for ADSL chip-sets. PAIR may get some license fees from some 2nd or 3rd tier vendors, but will not get rich on that. IMHO, PAIR has squandered several opportunities to move up to the next level as a telecom equip. mfgr. Those opportunities will probably never present themselves again. Not what you wanted to hear, I'm sure, but if I were a PAIR investor, I would look for minimal revenue enhancement from either HDSL2 or ADSL. Judge for yourself what that will mean in terms of stock performance Regards, Knip