Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5133)	12/7/1998 6:34:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Haim, about your bubble valuation thesis: I preface my remarks by stating that I am not a TA expert, nor do I necessarily believe that TA applies to stocks with Lucent's price. However, if you look at a two-year chart, and do an exponential fit, you can argue that the bubble took place this summer, just before the major market correction. Recently, it's been a bit below that trend line, and a price of 100 brings it just about to the trend line. Granted, it may be that it has been in a bubble for the last two years, but if so then so has just about every tech stock.

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5133)	12/7/1998 6:43:00 PM
From: Mark Palmberg	Respond to of 21876

Mark, sorry but you are living in a bubble valuation period. Maybe your age is making you to optimistic. (no pun intended) Please, don't apologize. One of my main problems with what you're saying is that you characterize Lucent as this lethargic company that for some reason is not going to be able to compete with whichever companies are coming up to eat its lunch. I don't see any reliable evidence of this. And as far as my age goes, well, go pull up a chart of the DJIA (or any index you choose) for the past 60 years. I'm not scared of a market downturn of five, ten years, Haim. I've done enough homework to know that -- based on past performance -- my money is going to do just fine in the market over the next twenty years. That's the story of LU stock, ignorant people are running it up. I LOVE this one. Thanks so much for the laugh, Haim. It could be one of the most uninformed opinions I've ever read on SI, and that's saying something! I've always thought that the schizo's out there who jump into a stock for a two-point ride have much more influence on a stock's short-term performance than those investors who keep adding to long-term positions over the course of months or years. Are these the same ignorant people who're driving the prices or Dell, Yahoo, Microsoft, AOL, GE, P&G, Merck, etc., etc., etc.? Dollars to doughnuts Lucent's going to be cashing in on huge equipment contracts long after Dell begins to struggle to keep its share price above $50. And think about this: As sage and insightful as your Coke/Pepsi analogy was, that's a completely different industry. As the transmission of information (data, voice) become increasingly important/prevalent, big (huge) companies and governments aren't going to want to trust their networks to to some shlub selling switches out of the back of his Gremlin, no matter how low the price. Think about brand! Think about R&D muscle! Think about installed base! You just keeping hopping in for a couple points now and then, and you'll no doubt do fine. Mark

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (5133)	12/7/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: J. P.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

<<That's the story of LU stock, ignorant people are running it up>> Hmmm, well thank you ignorant people for doing that.