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To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (69576)12/7/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: Tony Viola  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
 
Harry, Re: "If history is a
good guide, Intel will probably comment in the 4Q earnings announcement on a
cap spending number for 1999."

Exactly the note I made listening to the conference call after 3Q, on 10/14/98. The fact that Intel mysteriously had no estimate to give WRT cap expenditures for 1999, at that late of a date surprised me a lot. In retrospect, Intel must have been going over the cap spending budget for '99 with a very fine tooth comb, and reduced it big time from whatever it had been (JMHO). I'll bet, though, that the thrust for it was strictly for the purposes of cost cutting to the bottom line, rather than giving up any manufacturing capability, again IMHO. Sometimes you "try harder" in cost cutting than at other times. It's not the most fun thing to do. Part of my notes from SI, 10/14:

INDIVIDUAL QUESTIONS

- Steve Orr, State St Research...how's October start...Paul -
excellent, extension of 3Q (see 3rd point before this part).

- Tom Bogan ? firm...turns outlook?...didn't get.

- Jack Geraghty...What do cap expenditures look like for '99?
Andy...don't have prediction yet. My comment...'99 budget not
complete yet? In general, Intel not giving much of '99 predictions,
but will after 4Q results (Jan. '99). Street doesn't care for this
(me).


- Ashok Kumar...Nice qtr.!...2Ques's, 1. wanted product split info
re different segments...Paul said Intel doesn't give this. 2. Japan
recovery?...can't tell.

- Jim Bartlett...Xeon shortage status? Paul said demand for Xeon
is higher than even Intel expected. Intel is in "good shape" now
re one way and 2 way MP (can meet high demand), and will be in
good shape on 4 way, 8 way in about a month, i.e., no longer
supply constrained.

- Scott Randall...what is Q4 visibility WRT turns for all channels.
Paul again avoided (I think) the turns word, but said ALL three
channels: distributors, OEM (box makers) and direct wanted
product NOW.

- David Wu...all I wrote down was 4Q very strong in US.

- Drew Peck...Will Celeron encroach on PII sales. Paul...no,
Celeron is doing its job of replacing PMMX. PII sales are strong
and TV and other ads intended to keep that way.





To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (69576)12/8/1998 12:10:00 AM
From: Paul Engel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Harry - Re: " If history is a good guide, Intel will probably comment in the 4Q earnings announcement on a cap spending number for 1999."

Youre' probably right. Intel will have a good sense for Q199 business levels - and possibly Q299 commitments - at that time.

Paul