To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (39138 ) 12/8/1998 3:14:00 AM From: rupert1 Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
Elwood: You left me off your roll call of longs. Is this a special list of very long time longs? Do I qualify? I started investing in CPQ in 1994/1995. My position then fluctuated between 20,000-65,000 shares which I traded quite actively, trying to time the surges and pull-backs. I was quite successful until about October/November 1996 when I decided that CPQ had reached a plateau and there were better opportunites elsewhere. So I missed some of the subsequent splits. But I also missed most of the doldrums. I started to buy back in about July, this year, and built up my position through the Fall. I now have a little more or little less than you as I trade some of it quite actively (25,000 - 35,000) While I was in the stock, I never knew about the SI threads. But I started to lurk on this thread earlier this year. I would never swear allegiance to a stock, but CPQ has been good for me. Right now I am tryng to calculate its potential vis a vis alternatives. Sometimes I have been chided for being too ambitious - when I was callng for $50 by 23rd January, 1999 and $42 by Christmas, 1998! I have also said that I thought it would be in excess of $60 in 1999. Actually, I think it will be in excess of $75 sometime in 1999 because I believe it will earn $2.00 to $2.50 per share and its p/e ratio wll expand. But the trick is to time the spurts and the pullbacks. In the past CPQ has often dropped back and then remained becalmed for 2-4 months at a time, before surging again with power. I think we have been in a surge, it may continue. Certainly there can be no tax loss selling for this stock, this year. However, there may be some selling soon by MM's wishing to lock in recent profits for the 4th quarter results, and I would think they would buy back in again when the 1st quarter books open in the 3rd/4th week of December. So I wouldn't be surprised that even if we spike a bit more, we would then pull back before making another January surge before earnings to about $42-45. I still maintain 0.41 cents as my guess for earnings. Victor