IDC Forecasts Strong Worldwide Q4 PC Unit Growth of 12.2 Percent
1999 Growth Projection of 12.8 Percent Bests 1998's 11.1 Percent Rate
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., Dec. 8 /PRNewswire/ -- Unit volume in the worldwide PC
market this quarter is expected to grow year-on-year 12.2 percent, according
to data released today by International Data Corporation (IDC). This strong
outlook reflects the ongoing strength of the Western European and U.S. markets
as well as the return of slight positive growth to Asia/Pacific and Japan.
Total 1998 worldwide PC volume is now projected at 89.2 million on growth
of 11.1 percent. For 1999, IDC now estimates worldwide PC market growth at
12.8 percent on unit volume of 100.6 million.
The Q4 worldwide market is being led by a big seasonal upswing in buying
in Western Europe, a robust U.S. consumer market, a rebounding portable
computer market and continued rapid expansion of the population of Internet
users. "We see the same pistons driving the growth engine that we've seen all
year," said Bruce Stephen, group vice president, Worldwide Personal Systems
Research. "We expect more of the what's driving the current market next year,
albeit in slight moderation."
Worldwide growth continues to be led by the Western Europe PC market,
which is projected to expand 15.6 percent year-on-year this quarter. This
region is being led by greater economic confidence in the all-important German
market. As in the U.S., the expansion of the low-cost consumer PC market
continues and new types of retail channels for PCs, such as food stores in the
UK, appear to be driving market expansion. The region also continues to
benefit from an increased focus from global brands and a rapid increase in the
number of Internet users
U.S. growth this quarter is pegged at 12.2 percent with the consumer PC
market looking very strong fueled by a still-robust economy, low-cost PCs, on-
line buying and interest in the Internet. The still-awakening portables
market is another important growth factor.
The growth picture in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) appears to be
improving. Stronger than expected third-quarter results combined with
strengthening currency and stock markets bode well for the regional PC market
in Q498 and into 1999. PC shipments in Q4 1998 are expected to increase five
percent. However, there is still uncertainty in some areas such as Malaysia
and Indonesia, but the level of volatility has gone down considerably in
comparison to the previous year.
The outlook for the fourth quarter in Japan is modestly better with unit
volume expected to increase about five percent over the previous year's
quarter. The Japan PC market is still severely held in check by serious
economic problems. In addition, there is typically a falloff in business PC
purchases in the fourth quarter, which follows heavier buying in the third
calendar quarter, during which the first half of the Japanese fiscal year
ends. Market growth is being helped by good demand from the consumer segment
as well as a round of new portables from vendors such as Sony and Panasonic.
VENDORS
In Q4, IDC believes vendors well-positioned in the high-growth geographies
(the U.S. and Western Europe), strong consumer markets and the awakening
portable segment will gain share. To that end, it looks like a good quarter
for Dell, Compaq, H-P and IBM. Apple should benefit by the holiday buying
season and an aggressive promotional campaign. Despite some recent concerns
about fourth quarter performance, Gateway is expected to take advantage of the
strong U.S. home computer market.
Table 1
Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, Q3 1998
(Thousands of Units)
Q398 Q398 Q397 Q397 Growth
Vendor Units % Share Units % Share 98/97
Compaq 3,198 14.4% 3,024 15.4% 5.7%
Dell 2,032 9.2% 1,212 6.2% 67.6%
IBM 2,028 9.2% 1,629 8.3% 24.5%
Hewlett-Packard 1,470 6.6% 1,166 5.9% 26.1%
Packard Bell NEC 999 4.5% 980 5.0% 1.9%
Top 5 9,727 43.9% 8,011 40.7% 21.4%
Others 12,408 56.1% 11,667 59.3% 6.3%
Total 22,135 100.0% 19,679 100.0% 12.5%
*Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all
vendors and represent shipments to distribution channels or direct to
end-users
Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods
Data for Packard Bell NEC includes shipments for Packard Bell, ZDS, and
NEC outside of Japan and China
Compaq sales include all Digital Equipment Corp. PC sales for the quarter
Source: International Data Corporation, 12/98
Table 2
USA Top 5 Vendor Rankings
(Thousands of Units)
Q398 Q398 Q397 Q397 Growth
Vendor Units % Share Units % Share 98/97
Compaq 1,502 15.8% 1,639 19.6% -8.4%
Dell 1,340 14.1% 812 9.7% 65%
IBM 869 9.1% 650 7.8% 33.6%
Hewlett-Packard 796 8.4% 629 7.5% 26.7%
Gateway 781 8.2% 544 6.5% 43.5%
Top 5 5,287 55.5% 4,273 51% 23.7%
Others 4,234 44.5% 4,105 49% 3.1%
Total 9,521 100.0% 8,378 100.0% 13.6%
*Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all
vendors and represent shipments to distribution channels or direct to end-
users
Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods
Data for Packard Bell NEC includes shipments for Packard Bell, ZDS, and
NEC outside of Japan and China
Compaq sales include all Digital Equipment Corp. PC sales for the
quarter
Source: International Data Corporation, 12/98
About IDC
International Data Corporation is the information technology industry's
most comprehensive resource on worldwide IT markets, trends, products,
vendors, and geographies. IDC provides data, analysis and advisory services
to the world's leading IT suppliers as well as IS professionals in finance,
insurance, entertainment, advertising, consumer goods and publishing. IDC's
research and opinions are based on the results of more than 300,000 end-user
surveys, in-depth competitive analysis, broad technology coverage, and
strategic analysis. IDC is committed to providing global research with local
content through its 500 analysts in more than 40 countries worldwide.
Additional information on IDC can be found on its Web site at
idc.com.
IDC is a division of International Data Group, the world's leading IT
media, research, and exposition company.
SOURCE International Data Corporation
CO: International Data Corporation
ST: Massachusetts
IN: CPR MLM
SU:
12/08/98 08:59 EST prnewswire.com |
