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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (875)	12/8/1998 12:28:00 PM
From: Eric Maggard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Thanks, and yes, there are many here that are great in analysing the markets. It is good to have them all in one place. Take care, Eric BTW, it is in a free-fall and down now to 193.56

To: HairBall who wrote (875)	12/8/1998 12:32:00 PM
From: AJ Berger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

My Current Approach to Portfolio Management If you agree that the market will trend sideways or lower most of next year as the World economic conditions continue to undermine the US economy; consumer debt burden increase from low interest rates begin to show their ugly side, as layoffs at US exporter continue; and suspect a Y2K sell off next year, Here's a simple thing to do NOW. Compare the Stock prices of what you have now against the recent highs made in July'98. If your stock is trading at or below those levels, you should look to sell them off, or at least reduce your exposure by 50% during the next couple of weeks. Any stock trading above the July'98 highs should be held for now. Enjoy the ride at least until the next market downturn becomes apherent, and then be prepared to sell 50% of those stocks. When market looks bleakest, you'll have a nice cash reserve for bargin hunting. Try to focus on those stocks that already exceeded July'98 highs since then. Don't short stocks no matter how high they get, wait to do that in a Downturn market, not a sideways or bullish phase. I'm using this over simplified approach with a friends portfolio, and he feels very comfortable with it, given the past history of the market and his stocks. (I'm a short term event trader, so this does not apply to me.)

To: HairBall who wrote (875)	12/8/1998 1:11:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, I do not think that a numerical number on the CRB has the same importance as to a specific number on equity index. The reason is simple there are so many independent components which are difficult to manipulate oil group, metals group, grains group, lumber etc. The issue of deflation is old news and I was writing for a while that the US is playing the smoke and mirror games. I think the more important issue is to see how the Congress hearings pan out and how the US foes will see it. Issues in N.Korea and M.East are rising more the danger zone with a potential war as a result of inadequate US policy. Aside from that I anticipate a slower employement market which will hurt stock prices due to the low reported saving rate. BWDIK Haim