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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob S. who wrote (29292)	12/8/1998 12:28:00 PM
From: KeepItSimple	Respond to of 164684

There is absolutely no significant money to be made shorting Amazon for some time to come. With Deutchebank controlling the ENTIRE float and then some, this stock is locked at its current levels. Bezos has even managed to quietly start exiting the money-losing retail business. He's not a stupid guy- he can see that within a year Barnes and Noble will utterly obliterate Amazon's core marketshare. There is simply no way to compete with B&N's deep pockets coupled with Bertlesman's media empire. The ingram buyout isnt going to help any either, as you can bet the current Ingram credit terms (which expire very shortly) will not be extended by B&N. Nothing illegal there- Amazon has negative net assets and has never made a dime. B&N can point to their junk bond performance if the regulators question why they aren't extending cushy credit terms to AMZN like in the good old days. Now, the problem for Bezos is that the new biz plan for Amazon is just as uncertain, since there are already tons of e-portal players out there, but that is not Bezo's concern. His concern is being able to delay the "end game" a few more years so he can cash out his shares for an unbelievable profit. By changing his business model 180 degrees (and seriously folks, its doesnt take a genius to realize that is what is going on here) Bezos gets the benefit of the doubt, and as soon as they stop selling books they'll stop losing tons of cash. The only question I've got is how Amazon is going to break the news that they are closing their bookstore without admitting it was a total business failure. I suppose their PR department is capable of anything, they'll probably talk along the lines of "At Amazon we aspire to be the ultimate guide to e-commerce, and don't feel it would be beneficial to our shareholders to maintain a limited focus on one segment of the ecommerce industry, namely selling books. We will continue to provide the utmost in shopping security for our customers as always, and we feel sure that the new Amazon will move forward into the next century as the one website to visit when you're looking to buy anything over the web." Like I said, I highly doubt he'll make any money doing it, but he should be able to confuse the public long enough to cash out. Netscape did the same thing when Microsoft came in and ate their lunch in the browser market. (and when linux and apache ate their lunch in the server market) They quickly shifted their focus to becoming a portal when it was clear they could no longer make any money selling any actual product. The same thing will happen with Amazon. I wonder if this is the "mother of all press releases" that we might see next year right before the 3:1 split? If Bezos is saving the best for last, it probably will be.

To: Rob S. who wrote (29292)	12/8/1998 3:38:00 PM
From: Robert Rose	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Hello Rob S. Ok, so I lied. So my last post was not to be my last one. Does sound like you're starting to quite more bullish, even "long term". Nevertheless, congrats on a great post that certainly makes much sense to me. Respectfully.

To: Rob S. who wrote (29292)	12/8/1998 8:00:00 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Rs,< That may be 1-3 years out, IMO.> I agree 100%. I don't like to have this much money tied up in this box and unbox situation. The good news is I'm almost close to even. It cost me 4k to open the box this morning, but it appears it would have cost me 13k if I hadn't slammed the lid shut. Every baby bull here has one thing going for them. They're riding a stock that the Elephants own. Everyone here should know by now that the Elephants own the float, and if they don't sell, this 'Thing' can't go down. It's impossible!! I can't think of a more bullet proof stock, for the next few months. If every bull on this thread sold every share they have tomorrow morning. It might effect the stock price by 1/64 for a second or two. If investors here like risk, they should be buyers, but @ 204ps, there's better % returns. Here's one. <INFOSEEK CORP COM(SEEK) Bid: 44 13/16 BidSize: 0 Open: 37 1/8 Ask: 44 15/16 AskSize: 0 Close: 35 15/16 Last: 44 7/8 High: 45 1/4 Div.: 0.00 Change: +8 15/16 Low: 37 Yield: 0.00 A.High: 45 P/E: 0.00 Volume: 15125300 A.Low: 7 3/4 EPS: -0.32 Market :NASDAQ NM>