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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (2492)	12/8/1998 3:28:00 PM
From: Curtis E. Bemis	Respond to of 12823

Tis absolutely true--approximate doubling of actual data traffic in the 50 or so national backbones every 100 days- There is not a single large ISP, one that talks about actual traffic growth on their network, that does not have an actual doubling of data traffic every 100 days or so. Read the Cook Reports for interviews and others. When these carrier ISP's increase their capacity by a variety of means (DWDM, OC48s and OC192's, etc.), on build-out, they instantly have a capacity that is 100 times what they currently have. They expect to fill it in 5 years. Of course, the prudent business model is to plan ahead and not wait for the crunch 5 years from now.

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (2492)	12/8/1998 4:38:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12823

Frank and Curtis: I simply don't now how such a claim as "throughput" doubling every 100 days [which extends to a ten-fold or greater annual nut to swallow] can be substantiated ... I've looked for the origins of this number, and it seems to have come from UUNET and then become widely reported after that. It is in the Congressional record of May 11 98, from hearings on intenet taxation and commerce. From Senator McCain's testimony: "Because the Internet is new and its uses are developing very rapidly, reliable economy-wide statistics are hard to find and further research is needed. Therefore, we have to use industry and company examples to illustrate the rapid pace at which Internet commerce is being deployed and benefits are being realized. Examples showing the growth of the Internet in electronic commerce this past year are numerous. Fewer than 40 million people around the world were connected to the Internet during 1996. By the end of 1997, more than 100 million people were using the Internet. As of December 1996, about 627,000 Internet domain names had been registered. By the end of 1997, the number of domain names more than doubled to reach 1.5 million. Traffic on the Internet has been doubling every 100 days. Madam President, I feel compelled to repeat that. Traffic on the Internet has been doubling every 100 days." Senator McCain is quoting a report from the Department of Commerce, "The Emerging Digital Economy," April 98. That report footnotes a 1997 white paper by the Inktomi Corporation White Paper at this URL inktomi.com If you go to that white paper (which tries to convince you that their server is the answer), you get "The capacity crunch is real and will continue for quite some time," says Mike O'Dell, chief scientist of UUNET, one of the world's largest Internet backbone providers. UUNet estimates that network traffic is doubling every 100 days as graphics, audio, and video become more common. This rate means that bandwidth demands are increasing at five times the rate of Moore's Law. The ability to build network capacity cannot keep pace. O'Dell concludes, "Demand will far outstrip supply for the foreseeable future." So it appears that the source for this estimate is UUNET, who has no reason to inflate numbers, right? ;-) BTW, the UUNET Marketing VP also gave out this number at the Spring 98 Internet World. Does anyone have independent confirmation of the "doubling every 100 day" estimate?