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Technology Stocks : Progress Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Mercer-Hursh who wrote (234)	12/8/1998 11:58:00 PM
From: mwj6	Respond to of 296

...aren't there already bunches of big players in the network management arena? Certainly, but I see the network management tool are primarily in three major pieces right now: a. network equipment vendors who sell specific tools for their equipment b. help desk automation c. "system" managers -- platforms that unify disparate vendor solutions via integration or brute force I think the biggest missing piece is on the mid-range to low end network server objects -- mainframes and larger server boxes already have information that can be sent to the system managers as instrumentation. NT is deficient here in my opinion. A related piece that is almost completely missing is network QOS instrumentation from the perspective of the server. Troubleshooting of a server related problem generally requires monitoring the infrastructure all around the server -- 2nd hand info. It gets even more difficult if the network is not end to end controlled by the party trying to diagnose the problem. Further, network QOS is going to be measured and sold by ISPs as a value add going forward. This is an emerging area in networking that is critical to customers who expect to deploy voice, video and mission critical data on IP infrastructures and expect differentiated service. This software fits in that space. There are enterprises I am familiar with that could drop in hundreds of NT server licenses if it works as advertised. I have trouble seeing this kind of product as a big money maker for PRGS. To sell this they need to get a lot of drop in demos going. For that they need either VAR partnerships with big guys or maybe network vendor partners whose sales forces will sell it for them -- or better yet getting MSFT on board... It's up to them to make it a money maker. I think it is very interesting that one of the big network equipment vendors (Cabletron) was quoted in that news release. Cabletron also is in the game of selling a system manager as well as tools for their own gear (a and c above). Wouldn't it be good if this product was shown in to some of their accounts? Or maybe Cisco -- they network 70-80% of the Fortune 500. It won't spread by word of mouth, it will take sales cycles. I believe they need a lot of help but that this has a lot of potential. This company appears to be recasting themselves as an Internet/Intranet tools company. If Wall St buys in to this notion and lends them an Internet valuation, I think they would reasonably trade in line with their peers which is at least a 50% premium from here. /matt