IN THE NEWS / Canadian Hunter Debut Painful For Some
Wednesday, December 9, 1998 Andrew Willis
Canadian Hunter Exploration's debut is going to be a bitter memory for a few aggressive investors.
The oil and gas arm of Noranda made its official entry on the market yesterday when it began trading on what known as an "if, as and when issued" basis on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
The key word here is "official." For the past few weeks, going into last Thursday's shareholder vote approving the breakup of Noranda, anyone who owned shares in the natural resource conglomerate could trade shares in Canadian Hunter and other units on a grey market established by various investment dealers.
Noranda's move to split its operations into separate companies was a popular one -- these days, investors are down on conglomerates and reward pure plays. The terms of the split were set down long ago by Noranda's board. For each Noranda share they owned, investors could expect one share in the new Noranda, a base metal miner, 0.436 of a share of Nexfor, the forest products unit, and 0.25 of a share in Canadian Hunter.
In establishing a grey market for these stocks, dealers were giving impatient investors a sneak preview of the broken-up Noranda.
In the grey market two weeks ago, Canadian Hunter was trading for $12 or more and volumes were decent, with a few hundred thousand shares changing hands in some sessions.
Traders said Noranda's institutional shareholders who wanted a pure mining play, which has always been the company's chief attraction, were selling Canadian Hunter and locking in that $12 price. The oil company's buyers were those who wanted early admission to the newest show in the oil patch.
Yesterday, those buying Canadian Hunter found that patience would have been a virtue.
The recent fall in oil prices and uncertainty over Canadian Hunter's abilities as an independent entity combined to create a $10.30 price tag for the company's stock in the TSE's "when issued" market. Canadian Hunter was one of the day's most actively traded stocks, with 1.8 million shares changing hands. Speculators who paid $12 on the grey market, a list that likely includes some of the dealers, have taken a pasting.
For the next few weeks, until the breakup is completed by year-end, Noranda will be the Street's favourite arbitrage. This game gives anyone with a calculator and quick access to the market a chance to trade the conglomerate against its parts.
Here's how the math works: When yesterday's trading closed, Noranda was priced at $19.75, and 3.5 million shares changed hands, six times the normal daily volume.
Now, apply the formula for breaking up Noranda to its offspring. New Noranda finished its first session at $14.85, on an impressive volume of 2.5 million shares, while 0.25 of a Canadian Hunter share was worth $2.58 and 0.436 of a Nexfor share was also worth $2.58.
Add it up, and pieces of the companies that used to make up Noranda were valued at $20.01 late yesterday. Playing on the gap between this price and that of the parent company kept equity desks busy yesterday, and will continue to do so until the conglomerate is put to rest. The move didn't get much attention outside of accounting circles, but National Bank used unusual tactics to build up its balance sheet last week.
The bank, smallest of the so-called Big Six, raised what's known as its "general allowances" -- money set aside against potential future losses -- by $300-million to $500-million. All bankers are being encouraged to make such moves by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.
The money, set aside in part to cover growing off-balance sheet activity and its associated credit risk, didn't show up in the bank's results for fiscal 1998 because it was taken out of retained earnings.
If National Bank had taken the provision from last year's income, 1998 would have been a terrible year -- the bank's net income was $316-million.
The controversy in accounting and analyst circles is that while what National Bank did was encouraged by federal regulators with OSFI, it doesn't square with GAAP rules that govern accountants and wouldn't be accepted by U.S. regulators such as the SEC. That latter issue isn't important to National Bank because its shares aren't listed on U.S. exchanges.
Other Canadian banks, with U.S. listings, would have added to general allowances by taking the money from income. By looking elsewhere for funds, National Bank has made it more difficult to compare its results with those of its peers. In an effort to be one step ahead of the news, we note that MDC Communications completed a $42-million equity offering yesterday.
MDC is a holding company for printing and advertising services -- its divisions make stamps, cheques and hockey tickets. The company is driven by Miles Nidal, an acquisition-hungry chief executive officer who's unlikely to let money gather dust in the till.
A syndicate of seven dealers led by Nesbitt Burns sold three million MDC shares at $14 a pop, and buyers enjoyed a decent first day, as MDC closed yesterday at $14.25. The underwriters have an option to sell an additional 450,000 shares at $14; if that happens, Mr. Nidal's war chest will be even larger. Takeovers can't be far behind. |