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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: wrm1 who wrote (9513)12/8/1998 7:47:00 PM
From: silicon warrior  Respond to of 12468
 
Dear distraught:
I, for one, own lots less and am deemed to be too "emotional" about my ownership. Also, been there, done that...I haven't great faith in whether yet another runup is sustainable. Probably made lots less money than you--gave up huge gains by not getting out earlier on the train to 10.25. I think many of us are just emotionallyu drained. Sure wish you're right about 100, but we've all seen so much hype, rumor, etc. that I think we're chary of all of this. Just my guess. As for input, who bloody knows why LU COO will be there??



To: wrm1 who wrote (9513)12/8/1998 10:01:00 PM
From: Alejandro  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 12468
 
wrm1:
As SW pointed out, there is an emotional factor. The been there seen that concept. I am not shorting WCII. I believe in it as much or more than ever. I just refuse to see profits evaporate anymore.

There has been much talk about manipulation. I didn't believe it. I was wrong. This stock is being yo-yo'd and is volatile as hell.

At a point, I thought limtex and SW were too concerned. I was wrong. They were right. That does not mean I have lost my vision of where WCII will go. I simply have changed how I will get there with all of you and WCII.

It is tough making big bucks in the market. WCII is a way to make 25 to 30 % on it's volatility. A prudent investor must look at that.

Paul mentioned, not long ago, that I thrived on the volatility. Problem was that I wasn't cashing in on it. Those big drops we had didn't bother me cause I wasn't losing money. Until I realized I was not taking advantage of an issue that could make me money. I fell in love with WCII which you should never do.

Funny conclusion. Reviewed our investments with my wife. Told her, if I die, she should never sell WCII or QWST unless she needed the money. Told her not to sell either period. Within a week, I sold WCII. When she asked me about me selling it. Told her that WCII was killing me and I sold it so I could re-position it for her before I went thereby assuring she wouldn't have to even think about selling it. She gave me one of those Alice looks from the old Jackie Gleason Honeymooners.

The best way to play this may well be to get your 5000 shares and forget it. Don't think we can afford to take that chance. Well, I can't for sure. My wife ??? Shoot, she's watching Jackie Gleason again.

ac



To: wrm1 who wrote (9513)12/9/1998 12:21:00 PM
From: Steven Bowen  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 12468
 
Dear Distraught,

"What has happened to this board?"

IMO, nothing. We're just in one of those periods where there's not much news to talk about. Many here, probably most notably SteveG and Bernard, have done an excellent job of putting the fundamental picture on the table. Everybody knows and believes in the direction of the company. It's just that most here have been here for years now, so sooner or later you have to run out of things to say.

I'm one that kind of went short, I bought puts, thinking the stock was headed to 20 or so. It looked like it would last week before the rumors hit again and then the news of the meeting. But sometimes I can be tough on the company even when I'm long the stock, so I haven't been posting much not wanting it to look like I was being hard on the stock just because I was short. And remember, when we go short or take profits, we're just playing the stock and the chart, not the company. I don't think you'll find any of us here who wouldn't agree with you on a $100 stock out 18 months or so.

Another thing is, I think this meeting really has people confused (at least it does me). I'm under the impression that the analyst meeting was called so that the company could positivly spin the faster, deeper, and European, buildout that is expected to be announced soon. The fear is that the street will look at this negatively, ie deeper loses, more debt, worsening EBITDA, longer time to EBITDA breakeven, etc. So I don't know if the anticipated news before the meeting will be a release of these new plans, or something else, and the plans will be spelled out at the meeting. Thing is, I don't see how these plans and this meeting can do anything positive for the stock; isn't all this news already in the stock? Is there anybody here who isn't expected a faster, deeper build and a move into Europe? And the concerns about a longer time to EBITDA breakeven and deeper debt may be legitimate.

The point about LU COO at the meeting doesn't surprise me at all. After all, he'll be responsible for most of this buildout. He's probably just there to say "we're 100% behind this company", "the money will be available", and a little cheerleading like "WinStar will be the showcase for state of the art wireless broadband technology". No way I'd believe any of this LU buying WCII crap. Doesn't make sense.

The kicker is, I've been led to believe that some type of partnering arrangement will be announced before the new buildout plans. Again, to offset any negative views of the new plans. So, with the latest rumors and the announcement of the meeting, could something actually be up this time??? No idea, but I'm getting tired of getting sucked into these stories only to get burned. Only reason I'm holding onto my puts, I don't like these run ups based on no fundamental changes. I can guarantee you, if I bought my puts back, that would signal the exact top and the stock would crash from there. So my holding the puts is all that's holding the stock up for the rest of you guys :-)

Also, contrary to some, I'm not expecting any announcements on New Media.

So my bottom line is, I don't see anything on the new buildout plans or meeting that can help the stock. A lot of the run up is based on rumors and anticipation again, and that, we've seen, can come out fast. The real pain in my butt is that the dang meeting is called for the day before my options expire, so I'm probably sunk. Wish they'd have given me a week or two in between.

Later,
Steve