To: Terry Maynard who wrote (278 ) 12/8/1998 9:19:00 PM From: Stewart Whitman Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1185
Terry, Here are my various thoughts... I bought into Rockwell a little while ago. I'm hoping both the spin-off and the parent will do well going forward. I said previously that my buying price was below $38, I'd probably raise that to about $44. Varian is also interesting valuation wise but I haven't bought. Convergys looks interesting growth-wise, but it is relatively expensive right now. I'll wait to see if we get a spin-off effect. I bought into Olin a little while ago based on free cash flow, improving financial condition, dividend, and the prospect of the spin-off. Some of the core businesses are still in relatively depressed markets but the earnings potential of the company in the right environment would be quite high. IMS Health is a great niche company, great growth potential, but it is too high priced for me. I played some arbitrage on the FHT/MTRS spin-off and made some money. Shorting MTRS, long FHT. I closed that one out with a nice gain. I've own Agouron for a long time. The tracking stock should make the profitability of the parent division more apparent. I haven't formed an opinion on tracking stocks themselves yet. I have not looked into the Telebras spin-offs, and probably should look at a couple. Some of the smaller spin-offs this year still look interesting: all the OFIS spin-offs (AZTC, FLYR, SCHS, WORK), PENX, FHT. None of the internet plays appeal to me - too scared of being the last one holding the empty bag. Pulitzer looks interesting because the spin-off will get lots of cash as part of the merger agreement. I'll look to that one after the merger is finalized. Pennzoil and Quaker State - I have played this one on and off by shorting KSF and being long Pennzoil and sometimes buying back KSF. After looking at some E&P guys with oil at $11 to $14, the profit outlook looks pretty bleak near term. I'll take a closer look after the spin-off. Prices below $20 for the E&P company look very interesting. With oil around $14, I thought a reasonable valuation for PZL, pre-spinoff, was about $42. Jefferies still trades at a depressed valuation after subtracting its ownership of ITGI. About $7 after subtracting ITGI. ITGI is probably impossible to short now (too few shares in the float). I've watched Hoechst for quite some time - it's among the cheapest of the big drug stocks. It seems like every big chemical company is trying to change into a "life sciences" business. I'll be looking at the spin-off and the subsequently announced merge with Rhone Poulenc carefully. Regards, Stew