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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (35071)	12/8/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Jim, this whole rally was fabricated for the elections. The fundamentals are not there in any shape or form. WS danced along just because they had no other choice. reality check will come sooner than we expect. The electorate and influential power of WS including all those funds is now tremendous. Just compare how many funds were around 10 years ago and how many are around now and this does not include private funds or hedge funds. A substantial market decline of let say 3000 points will be a disaster at present savings rates, as unemployement will soar IMHO to around 8% to 9% if accounting for collateral damage. The issue will be if this market down turn will persist more than just one month and it will develop in a true bear market of several months, than it will feed by itself, due the demoralization of Joe Six Pack who will realize that his retirement money evaporated and also will put pressure on companies to steer some of their free cashflow to the pension funds, which at the time will be underfunded. We may well have a repeat of the 1980 recession and I think it was ugly then. BWDIK Haim