To: RobbRacer who wrote (1 ) 12/9/1998 6:48:00 PM From: Louis Cornell Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 202
This is a great idea for a thread. It got me thinking about this emerging industry, and how to identify the various growth sectors that will emerge from it. I think there is some time to watch what is happening and make some judgements about where to look. I am looking at it as two main "sub-groups." One is what I call "e-commerce/web content," (ex. AMZN, CDNW, AOL, YHOO) and the other is "web infrastructure/support services" (ex. INTC, CSCO, AWRE, FDX). I wouldn't make any investment choice based on short term comparative valuations. Rather, I would identify the "expected market leader," for an emerging sector within these two "sub-groups," take a deep breath and buy as cheap as you can, if there exists such a thing right now. CSCO had huge growth years ago because they "owned" the critical niche in networking as it emerged as a tech sector. What internet company in these two "sub-groups" will emerge? Please provide your ideas/thoughts. Some might say AMZN in e-commerce, and CSCO in web infrastructure. I don't know which it will be, or whether a leader has yet to emerge. I know that as a macro trend, e-commerce will increase the amount of direct retail shipments globally. That looks to benefit companies like Fedex (FDX). Still, FDX is hardly a "direct play." I wouldn't think that any one portal will capture the whole internet, although Yahoo (YHOO) is certainly the largest and is growing the fastest. Books and CDs seem to be the popular online purchase, and so AMZN and CDNW would probably be good picks for online vendors, although I cringe at the valuations. How many years are we discounting here?? Clothing is third I think, and Bluefly (BFLY) is one play although quite small. I wouldn't assume that the telecoms will stand still, like MCI Worldcom (WCOM), Alltell (AT), Lucent (LU), and the Baby Bells to name a few. I think it still early enough to identify the "next Cisco" and profit immensely over the next ten years or so. I welcome all thoughts on the subject. BTW, I'm cringing at the thought of penny/bulletin board stocks being considered a legitimate way to play this..